TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION:

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2014

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Good Morning.
I have posted two pictures above. The first is the AR for next Friday, the other is the west coast RADAR pic from this morning.
Today we have a cloud cover from 8k to 10k feet. This is from an upper level low that will pass through this morning. Another low will pass through Sunday with more clouds and Fall like weather. Weak High pressure will build in for the first part of the work week ahead with Wednesday being the warmest day of the week. Then things start to change. In the above pics, the AR is shown for Friday of next week, this should provide moisture support for a deep low pressure area that will arrive here late Friday or Saturday am. The forecast models are a little weak on the amount of Rain for our area, but I will keep updating as things progress. As for today, We have had gusty NE winds overnight and this morning most stations are reporting more of a southerly flow from 5-10 mph. Winds will be variable as another low will pass through tonight and or tomorrow. High temps today will be a little cooler with highs in the lower to mid 70s, and overnight lows tonight in the upper 40s to low 50s. The Marine layer should thicken up as the next front passes through, so the IE may see some early morning fog. On the 10day model forecast, it looks like another chance for Rain here will come around for Nov 8/9.

Local High and Low temps from the last 24 hours are, at my location on the South shore of LAKE GREGORY-76/57, TWIN PEAKS-73/55, RIM HIGH-76/54, ROCK CAMP USDA Fire Station-78/59, CEDAR RIDGE-75/57, KELLER PEAK FIRE LOOKOUT-68/49, and at BIG BEAR-75/46.
Playground drive station is reporting steady winds at 18mph from the South. These wind speeds are reported from approximately 50-75 feet above ground on a Microwave tower and may not reflect surface wind speeds.

FIRE DANGER LEVEL FOR TODAY: HIGH

Current Lake Gregory Weather Conditions:

2014/2015 “EL NINO” Weekly Update, for October 24th.
nawinter
El Nino is still on the table for this winter, 2014/2015. Stronger indications for El Nino are beginning to appear, as positive PDO indices have strengthened over the last month along with the forecast for an increase in SST’s from 0.6 to 1.0 in the ENSO 3.4 region for the next few months. If these indices come to fruition, we could be looking at a moderate “EL NINO” for this winter. I have posted the latest CPC Plume based ENSO Forecast graph from mid October 2014. The Posted Graph depicts the increased confidence in an El Nino for the upcoming Winter months in SoCal.
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has been in a Negative mode for several years, recently, the PDO has turned positive, which coincides with an El Nino event. Phases of the PDO, typically last for anywhere from 7 to 20 years. When the PDO is in the positive phase, SoCal will typically see more “NORMAL” Winter patterns, and RAINFALL amounts from average to above average.
While this forecast is based on a blend of past history and current data, things can change. At this time there are several other factors as well not described here that give credence to this forecast. Only time will tell.*RC
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*my opinion.