TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION:

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2014
ussatloopb09
Good Morning.
Today for the Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and Twin Peaks areas, we will have clear skies with a weak NE wind developing this afternoon. Pressure gradients from Daggett to San Diego are becoming offshore today which will keep any fog at the coast, today. A East West ridge of high pressure will give SoCal warmer weather for the rest of the work week. Saturday, temps will cool 10-20 degrees as another Low will drop down from the North. There is a chance for a cutoff Low to develop Saturday. If it does, we could get a sprinkle or two. So, for today. temps will be a little warmer than yesterday with highs from 72-76*. Lows tonight will be from 49-55* for most areas depending on the wind. We will continue to be at the bottom end of this troughing pattern as storm after storm passes through Southern Oregon and NorCal. At this time, no significant rain is in our future for the next week. *RC

Local High and Low temps from the last 24 hours are, at my location on the South shore of LAKE GREGORY-69/44, TWIN PEAKS-71/46, RIM HIGH-70/52, ROCK CAMP USDA Fire Station-74/52, CEDAR RIDGE-67/54, KELLER PEAK FIRE LOOKOUT-663/54, and at BIG BEAR-68/38.

FIRE DANGER LEVEL FOR TODAY: HIGH

Current Lake Gregory Weather Conditions:

2014/2015 “EL NINO” Weekly Update, for October 17th.
nawinter
A weak “El Nino” is still on track beginning in late October 2014. The general consensus is between 60 and 65% in favor of ENSO for SoCal for the winter of 2014/2015. SSTs and other atmospheric conditions have remained, and continue to be in favor of ENSO for the upcoming winter. This year 14 Hurricanes have pounded the East Pacific. The remnants of these storms has brought Flash flooding to the Southwest United States, including California, Arizona and New Mexico. Nine of those were Major Hurricanes at CAT3-5. The Atlantic Hurricane season has been weak, at best. The fact that the East Pacific has been so active and the Atlantic has been so quiet are good signs that El Nino is brewing. As we change seasons to Fall and to Winter, the Polar Jet stream will drop further to the South bringing Winter rains to the West Coast of the US. This is also the time when El Nino can come into play by adding Tropical moisture to storms as they head into SoCal from the ocean.
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*my opinion.