TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION:

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 01, 2015.
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On the “TODAY’S WEATHER” page there are live radar loops available.
 
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Good Morning.
Onshore flow will bring coastal fog to the some of the Inland areas this morning. This is due to a weak LOW that is moving across Northern California. By tonight, we should see NE winds as the trough moves to our East and a High moves over the area from the West. These NE winds will short lived and by Friday, onshore flow will return to our area. As far as temperatures go, we will have a cooler day today and tomorrow as the winds tend to keep things cool. On the long range, I think it must be an April fools thing, but the models show a chance of rain next Tuesday and Wednesday. Temps today for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead, Twin Peaks and Running Springs will all be in the mid to upper 60s. Overnight lows will be from the mid to upper 30s. Big Bear will be a little cooler with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s and overnight lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Winds will pick up today from the NE from 10-25mph by tonight. Have a good Day. RC

 
FIRE DANGER LEVEL FOR TODAY: LOW
 
CHECK ON THE “ROAD CONDITIONS” PAGE FOR CURRENT UPDATES.
 
Please like us on the FACEBOOK BUTTON at the top of the page. Thanks. RC
 
Local High and Low temps from the last 24 hours are:

QPF DAY 1-3

QPF DAY 1-3

LAKE GREGORY——–68/39….Elevation 4618’………..0.00″ RAIN
TWIN PEAKS————66/39….Elevation 5784′ ……….0.00″ RAIN
RIM FOREST————68/46……..Elevation 5768′ ……….0.00″ RAIN
NORTH LK ARROW——-67/45……..Elevation 5472′ ……….0.00″ RAIN
CEDAR RIDGE———-64/44……..Elevation 5580′ ……….0.00″ RAIN
RUNNING SPRINGS—62/43…….Elevation 6283’………..0.00″ RAIN
KELLER PEAK——59/42…….Elevation 7864’………..0.00″ RAIN
BIG BEAR—————–66/29……..Elevation 6768′ ……….0.00″ RAIN
CSUSB———————81/54…….Elevation 1278’………..0.00″ RAIN
Rainfall amounts are, 24Hour Storm totals as of the morning update during rain events.
Temps are 24hour max and min.
If you check the “ROAD CONDITIONS” page there is a live picture from HWY 18 AND LAKE GREGORY DRIVE. Use this to check the FOG or other road conditions such as CHAIN CONTROL.
Be sure to check the WEBCAM page to see how the weather looks at other locations around the mountain as well.
EL NINO UPDATES ARE POSTED EVERY FRIDAY AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PAGE.
 

Current Lake Gregory Weather Conditions:

EL NINO UPDATE:

MARCH 28th, 2015 ENSO update.

Posted here is the latest consensus forecast graphs for El Nino as of MARCH 28, 2015.
Here we go again. This time last year, we were in a similar ENSO position, as to where we are now. Warm SST’s, Negative OLR from the Equatorial/Dateline region of the Pacific, and, wind anomalies across parts of the Western Pacific region as well. So, what does this mean for our Weather here in SoCal? March indicators of ENSO are not of much value on the overall scheme of things to come. As March is a transitionary time in the cycles of Weather, the present state of ENSO is not a good indicator of what is to come. A much more cautious approach to ENSO is in the works due to the lack of confidence brought about by this last years analysis and forecast’s short comings. So far this year, the general consensus forecast is for a positive ENSO to continue through the summer of 2015. Warmer SST’s already in place will give some extra potential for El Nino to affect our weather this summer, as to what effect it will have on next Winter, 2015/2016, we’ll just have to wait and see. A study recently released about the effect of El Nino and the Tornado season in the Mid West had some interesting findings. It is believed that El Nino years have less Tornadoes than La Nina years. This is not to say that one year is less than another as far as the Danger level or Damage that will be incurred. Is just states that the findings show less activity during El Nino years. This year will be a good test for that theory. The beginning of the Season has already been deadly with one fatality this week and Eight Tornadoes causing lots of damage in the Oklahoma and Arkansas areas.
As for the Monsoon/Hurricane Season ahead, ENSO will have an effect, what effect that will be remains to be seen. With the ocean temps warmer than normal along the Eastern Pacific coupled with the current El Nino conditions, the possibility for a similar Summer Monsoon Season, to last years is likely. Last years Pacific Hurricane season was one of the most active in recorded History. The Monsoon season was also one of the most active for our area. Only time will tell. Weather is a dynamic Science, forever changing, that’s what makes it interesting. RC
 
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This is a current diagram of the phase space of the Madden Julian oscillation. The current MJO phase space is 8, usually favors rain for our area during the Winter quarter.
 
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