TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION:

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 01, 2014

prog12hr Good Morning.
Labor Day Weather will be very close to yesterdays. High temps will be from 85-90* around the Mountain areas. Lows will drop to the lower 60s. Humidity levels are running between 29-40% along with light winds will keep the Fire Danger in check. As we begin the month of September, We will have good weather for the week ahead. A Catalina Eddy will spin up fog and low clouds further Inland each day through the week ahead. Temps will slowly cool as a result for most of SoCal. A 500mb area of High pressure running from Florida to SoCal will insure a dry SW flow while a weak trough of Low pressure will drop down to our North only to reinforce the SW flow further. This morning, 2km sat pic showed a layer of fog along the coastal areas but has backed off as the C-Eddy moved slightly to the west pulling the marine layer with it. So good weather for the beaches today. The month of August was a busy month. We had several T-Storms and an abnormal amount of precipitation for most areas around the Mountain. Generally, the SoCal Mountain areas had an average of 150% of normal precipitation along with cooler than normal temperatures overall. Warmer than normal SSTs along the Eastern Pacific basin most likely contributed to the Weather we had in August, and will continue to influence our Weather in to Winter. Local Temps around the area were, at my location on the South shore of Lake Gregory, 87/61, Twin Peaks-87/63, Rim High-88/65, USFS Rock Camp Fire Station-88/65,Lk Arrowhead-86/52 Keller Peak Lookout-7/64-22% Humidity, and Big Bear-84/46.
TODAYS FIRE DANGER LEVEL: HIGH, with light winds and humidity running from 20-40%. *RC
Check the EL NINO update and graphs at the bottom of this page.

Current Lake Gregory Weather Conditions:


2014/2015 “EL NINO” August 30, Update.

822elnino
Conditions for an “EL NINO” effect Winter of 2014/2015 are looking better. During July, SSTs in the Pacific Basin were cooling, creating questions as to the probability of an EL NINO for the upcoming Winter. Since then, SSTs are again on the rise. A new Kelvin wave has emerged in the Eastern Pacific to renew hopes for EL NINO Winter for our area. As Summer gives way to Fall, the Monsoonal flow that has been beneficial to SoCal Summer Rainfall will move South. For our area, Precipitation levels are up 150% over normal for this time of year. Lets hope this trend continues in to the Winter ahead. I have posted a graph of the latest consensus on EL NINO. It shows a positive increase from the previous months graph of 65%, to almost 75%.
Here in the San Bernardino Mountains, we have had an abnormal amount of Monsoonal flow and T-Storms during the last two months. It has also been cooler this summer than normal. The forecast for this summer was to be drier and hotter than normal. Instead, we have been cooler and wetter than normal. As we head into Fall and Winter, we can only hope that this trend continues. *RC

* my opinion.