TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION:

SUNDAY NOVEMBER 23, 2014.
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Good Morning.
Today’s weather for the Crestline, Twin Peaks and Lake Arrowhead areas:
High winds will be the weather feature for today. As Surface HIGH PRESSURE builds into the Great Basin over the next few days, we will have Gusty North to North East winds. We can expect wind gusts to 35mph in most areas today decreasing tonight but returning Monday night again. At 830am this morning, Playground drive Station reported wind gusts 24-65mph from the North. A WIND ADVISORY and a FIRE ADVISORY are in effect for the SoCal Mountains including here. For the week ahead, Clear weather and warming days through Thanksgiving Day. Winds will taper off by mid week so for T-DAY we should have a nice day. Temps for today will range from 50-55* and over night lows from 39-44*. Monday temps will range from 55-60* for most areas. Low temps for Monday will range from 37-44*. Gusty winds on the local Highways will make driving difficult so use caution. *RC
Local High and Low temps from the last 24 hours are, at my location on the South shore of….. LAKE GREGORY-58/37…wind gusts to 37mph. Elevation 4618′
TWIN PEAKS-.58/37…………….W/gusts to 20mph…….Elevation 5784′ .00″ RAIN
RIM HIGH—.54/40…………….W/G to 10mph………..Elevation 5768′ .00″ RAIN
ROCK CAMP Fire Station–64/41….W/G19mph……………Elevation 4897′ .00″ RAIN
CEDAR RIDGE-58/38…………….W/G21mph……………Elevation 5580′ .00″ RAIN
KELLER PEAK FIRE LOOKOUT-57/34…W/G to 37mph………..Elevation 5800′ .00 RAIN
BIG BEAR—-55/33…………….W/G to 26…………..Elevation 6768′ .00″ RAIN
FIRE DANGER LEVEL FOR TODAY: VERY HIGH
EL NINO UPDATES ARE POSTED EVERY FRIDAY AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PAGE.

Current Lake Gregory Weather Conditions:

2014/2015 “EL NINO” Weekly Update for NOVEMBER 21st.
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While “EL NINO” is the big question for the upcoming winter, there are a few positive indications in favor. I have posted the two latest graphs of the general consensus possibility for an El Nino this year. The most recent one depicts an increase in likelihood that El Nino is alive and coming. The SST’s have risen to .9c over normal and continue to slowly warm over the past few weeks. So the ocean is still in a positive ENSO state. While there are some signs of an ENSO event for the West Coast, the most promising event is the PDO after many years in the negative pattern, is now in a positive pattern which should increase the possibility for a more normal, to above normal rainfall season for the West. If we do get some ENSO influence as well, that will enhance our rainfall possibilities even further. EL NINO forecasters are having trouble coming up with a Winter Forecast for this 2014/2015 winter. Although Sea surface temps are in the proper range, the atmosphere is not responding accordingly to what would be typical of an event. The latest forecast released Nov 21st, shows a 75% probability in favor of an El Nino. This is up 18% from last months graph. December through March are the wettest months for our area and when we get 75% or more of our yearly rainfall. So while the likelihood of EL NINO saving California from further drought is slipping away, there is still a good chance for a “normal” rainfall year for all of California due to the PDO being in a positive state. *RC
*my opinion.