TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION:
SUNDAY APRIL 19, 2015
On the “TODAY’S WEATHER” page there are live radar loops available.
This morning’s surface pressure at Daggett is 1012.3mb and at San Diego it is 1015.3mb. This will give us an onshore flow today. A low pressure area off of the San Francisco Bay area will drop south to SoCal by Monday. This is the first of three waves of low pressure that will affect our weather through the week ahead. This first low will move over SoCal by Monday morning bringing a deeper marine layer and cooler temperatures to the area as it passes through the area Tuesday. A chance for a Thunderstorm for later today from the central valley to around the Ventura area is possible as instability in the atmosphere will develop in the afternoon hours. We may see some cumulus clouds build over the mountain areas today in our area as well. For Monday through Wednesday, we will have a chance for Thunderstorms over our Mountain areas as well. For Wednesday and Thursday, a second wave of low pressure will pass through giving our area a 40% chance for rain along with a chance for Thunder Storms over the mountain areas around SoCal. The third and last system will pass through Friday and Saturday with still a chance for some light rain and or a Thunder Storm. So, as it looks at this time, next week will be interesting with a chance for of rain throughout most of the week. Thursday looks like we will have the best chance for some precipitation here around 40% chance. Rainfall amounts will be light for all areas unless a T-Storm develops which will increase rainfall amounts for the specific area. No Snow is expected with the exception of the highest areas, however, hail may accompany Thunder Storms if they do develop. This will be from a cold core low with not much moisture available. Some upper level moisture will stream in to the Ventura area and north this afternoon to give the chance for a T-Storm there. As the low drops south some additional moisture may feed in from the south tomorrow, which will increase the possibility of a T-Storm over our area and toward the San Diego mountain areas.
High temperatures today for Crestline will be from 68-71* with overnight lows around 42*. For Lake Arrowhead and Twin Peaks, highs today will be from 66-73* and nighttime lows will run from 40-44*. For the Running Springs and Big Bear areas, highs today will be from 64-68* and overnight lows will run from 35-43*. We will have gusty west winds developing as the low pressure system moves closer to our area.
FIRE DANGER LEVEL FOR TODAY: MODERATE
CHECK ON THE “ROAD CONDITIONS” PAGE FOR CURRENT UPDATES.
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LAKE GREGORY——–69/41…….Elevation 4618’………..0.00″ RAIN
TWIN PEAKS————74/48……..Elevation 5784′ ……….0.00″ RAIN
RIM FOREST————70/46……..Elevation 5768′ ……….0.00″ RAIN
NORTH LK ARROW—69/48……..Elevation 5472′ ……….0.00″ RAIN
CEDAR RIDGE———-68/49……..Elevation 5580′ ……….0.00″ RAIN
RUNNING SPRINGS—63/45…….Elevation 6283’………..0.00″ RAIN
BIG BEAR—————–65/27……..Elevation 6768′ ……….0.00″ RAIN
CSUSB———————82/56…….Elevation 1278’………..0.00″ RAIN
Rainfall amounts are, 24Hour Storm totals as of the morning update during rain events.
Temps are 24hour max and min.
If you check the “ROAD CONDITIONS” page there is a live picture from HWY 18 AND LAKE GREGORY DRIVE. Use this to check the FOG or other road conditions such as CHAIN CONTROL.
Be sure to check the WEBCAM page to see how the weather looks at other locations around the mountain as well.
EL NINO UPDATES ARE POSTED EVERY FRIDAY AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PAGE.
Current Lake Gregory Weather Conditions:
EL NINO UPDATE:
As shown below, SSTs around the Equatorial Dateline Region have remained above average for this time of year. SSTs east of the Dateline have also warmed over the last few weeks to above normal as well. At the far Western region of the Pacific Ocean near Indonesia, SSTs have cooled to below normal for this time of year. Increased Convection (based on negative OLR readings) is indicated near the Dateline, as well as the development of low level westerly winds. These conditions are representative of El Nino conditions. Below are a couple of graphs that depict the general consensus toward El Nino conditions for the next few months.