TODAY’S LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES:
TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:
Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains:
WEATHER UPDATE 5:30pm:
Everything looks on track for this system. Clouds are beginning to move into the area and fog will develop along the Rim soon. The coldest air will arrive between 1am and 5am Monday morning. We will most likely see rain and or sleet to begin with below the 6000′ level around midnight to 1am. Above the 6000′ level, will most likely start off with wet snow. As the storm moves into the area, colder air will move in and the freezing level will lower to the 3500′ level by morning. Snow accumulations are still low with 1-3″ expected across the area. The greatest amounts will be at the higher elevations.
Well, it looks like we will finally get a little taste of Winter late tonight, and tomorrow. A VERY COLD ARTIC air mass is on it’s way toward SoCal, and will arrive here early, Monday morning. Along with the very cold air, the weak tail end of a long wave trough, stretching from the Great Lakes all the way to SoCal will arrive by tonight. All of this will add up to clouds and fog developing around 10pm tonight, leading to rain below the 6000′ level to begin with, then the snow level rapidly dropping after midnight to the 4000′-4500′ level by 4am Monday. There will be a brief period of convective activity Monday morning, so I expect scattered snow showers with possible Hail or soft snow pellets, to continue through the morning and early afternoon hours Monday. Temperatures will remain very cold through Tuesday for all areas above the 4500′ level. If you are planning on driving anywhere on the mountain tomorrow, Winter Weather driving conditions will be likely. Which means, carry chains as there will likely be chain requirements above the 4000′ level through Monday, or so. Due to the very cold sustained temperatures locally, ICY ROADS and BLACK ICE will be a problem. There is a chance that snow showers may fall as low as the 3000′ level so be prepared for this. As of this mornings forecast models, we can expect to receive around .15″ of moisture from this system. That equates to from 1-3″ of Snow locally, using a 10-1 snow to moisture ratio typical for this cold of an air mass. Gusty SW to SE winds will develop today with wind gusts from 10-30mph. Temperatures will peak today at around the 45-50* mark, then drop rapidly as the cold air arrives later this evening. Overnight lows are expected to be from, 25* in the Crestline, and Lake Arrowhead areas, to 8-15* in the Green Valley and Big Bear Lake areas with even colder temps for Monday night. Highs for the day Monday will be from the mid 20s to low 30s for all mountain areas. Tuesday and Wednesday, we will warm up some but another chance for rain/snow will arrive later in the work week. So don’t put those shovels away just yet.
On another note, the latest long range outlook for SoCal is in favor of the area of High Pressure to our West, moving out at the end of February. So if this does happen, we may see at least a few good storms during March. We’ll see.
Crestline and Lake Arrowhead areas: 48-55*/25-32*-Inc/Clds
Running Springs & Green Valley Lake: 42-47*/20-26*-Inc/Clds
Big Bear: 45*50/10-18*-Inc/Clds
San Bernardino: 65-70*/40-45*-Inc/Clds
That’s it for now, have a good day, and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC