LOOKING AHEAD:

FRIDAY, AUGUST 22, 2014
TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION

GOOD MORNING.
noaa (13)

The Weekend Weather will be very nice around the Mountain. After a busy week of T-Storms, everything has now moved to the East giving way to a great weekend Weatherwise. Temps will be a little Fallish this weekend with highs in to the upper 70s and nighttime lows in the 50s. At this time, there are three Tropical Storms in the Eastern Pacific, Karina, Lowell and Marie. Marie is forecast to have the potential to be a strong Pacific Hurricane in the coming days. An interesting note, Marie is forecast to hang around off the Southern California coast through Labor Day generating high Surf along the SoCal coastline. This weekend, winds will be from the NE in the morning and the SW at night with gusts to 20 mph possible in the afternoon hours, in wind prone areas. Yesterday, no Rain was reported in the Big Bear area even though large Cumulus build ups were in that area all afternoon.
Local Temps around the area were, at my location in Crestline, 78/52, Twin Peaks-75/53, Rim High-79/53, USFS Rock Camp Station-78/53, Heaps Peak-76/57, Big Bear-71/4-no rain.
TODAYS FIRE DANGER LEVEL: HIGH. Humidity levels are still high but will slowly dry as the weekend progresses.*RC

Check the EL NINO update and graphs at the bottom of this page.*RC

Current Lake Gregory Weather Conditions:


2014/2015 “EL NINO” August 22, Update.

822elnino

The forecast for the remainder of August, is to remain above normal in Precipitation, due to the endless Monsoonal flow into SoCal. Temps are forecast to remain below normal through the end of August as well. A new Kelvin wave has emerged in the West Pacific. This could be a good sign of an EL NINO for the upcoming winter. As far as the forecast for an EL NINO, December, January and February seems to be when it will peak. So if that happens, we should have plenty of snow here for the Spring of 2015. We’ll see. The Latest graph (on the left) shows a increased potential for an “EL NINO”, over the last graph released at the beginning of August. Sea Surface Temperatures along the East and West of the Pacific Basin remain slightly above normal, however, generally speaking, the rest of the Pacific Basin has cooled down to just above normal in the last month. The likelihood of El NINO was reduced to a 65% at the beginning of August, however, this has once again increased to 75% on the latest forecast graph just released for December, January and February 2014/2015. Here in the San Bernardino Mountains, we have had an abnormal amount of Monsoonal flow and T-Storms during the last two months. It has also been cooler this summer than normal. The forecast for this summer, was drier and hotter than normal. Instead, we have been cooler and wetter than normal. As we head into Fall and Winter we can only hope that this trend continues. *RC

* my opinion.