TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION:
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 31, 2014
Todays Halloween forecast calls for clear skies this morning, with increasing clouds later today as a fairly wet cold front approaches the area. The graphic is from 7:00pm and shows the location of rain at that time. Surface pressure from Daggett to San Diego has turned onshore as the front approaches. This system will have two frontal waves. The first will come through tonight and last for 8 to 10 hours into Saturday morning. The second wave will be here for Sunday morning. The total rainfall is expected to range from 1/2 to 1.25 inches for our area. Winter Weather advisories for elevations above 6500′, and Wind advisories will be in effect for all areas from 8pm tonight until 5pm Saturday. Sunday, if the second part does develop, snow levels may reach a little lower levels but not much moisture is expected. Tonight, as the storm makes its way into SoCal, strong winds up to 50mph are expected locally, with stronger gusts in the favored areas on local ridges. Ridge FOG will hamper driving on the RIM later today so be sure to use your HEADLIGHTS. Snow flurries may drop to the 6000′ level but no accumulation is expected below 6500′. Up to the North at Mammoth Mountain, 5-10″ of Snow is expected and close to a foot of SNOW is forecast for the Ski areas there.
HIGH TEMPS for our area today, will range from 64-68* and tonight’s LOW TEMPS will be from 36-42*. Winds will be blowing as this first Winter Weather system moves into the area with gusts from 25-50mph are possible around Crestline, Twin Peaks and the surrounding areas. *RC
Local High and Low temps from the last 24 hours are, at my location on the South shore of LAKE GREGORY-73/52 wind SW @ 2-4
ROCK CAMP USDA Fire Station-72/50 FIRE DANGER LEVEL: LOW TODAY
KELLER PEAK FIRE LOOKOUT-63/48
Current Lake Gregory Weather Conditions:
2014/2015 “EL NINO” Weekly Update, for October 31st.
El Nino is still on the table for this winter, 2014/2015. Stronger indications for El Nino are beginning to appear, as positive PDO indices have strengthened over the last month along with the forecast for an increase in SST’s from 0.6 to 1.0 in the ENSO 3.4 region for the next few months. If these indicators come to fruition, we could be looking at a moderate “EL NINO” for this winter. I have posted the latest CPC Plume based ENSO Forecast graph from mid October 2014. The Posted Graph depicts the increased confidence in an El Nino for the upcoming Winter months in SoCal.
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has been in a Negative mode for several years, recently, the PDO has turned positive, which coincides with an El Nino event. Phases of the PDO, typically last for anywhere from 7 to 20 years. When the PDO is in the positive phase, SoCal will typically see more “NORMAL” Winter patterns, and RAINFALL amounts from average to above average.
While this forecast is based on a blend of past history and current data, things can change. At this time there are several other factors as well not described here that give credence to this forecast. Only time will tell.*RC