TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION:

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2014

rb (4)Good Morning.
Today, FALL begins at 7:29pm.
As we transition into Fall, we start the season with a warming trend. Temps will be on the rise through Wednesday with Mountain High temps reaching into the mid 80s. Tomorrow, there will be a brief Offshore wind but generally we will have an onshore SW flow through the week. Fire Fighters to our North on the KING Fire should get some relief Wednesday, as a Deep Low Pressure area will bring cooler temps and the possibility of up to 1/2 inch or more of rain there. Here, we will cool back down for the latter part of the week but no Rain for us. Todays High temps here will be from 78-83* and overnight lows will be from 52-56* for most areas. Winds today will be light from the SW 5-10mph. This mornings 2km sat pic shows clear skies all the way to the coast, no fog or low clouds today. This will aid in warming the IE with temps into the upper 80s to low 90s there. Another Topical Disturbance is gathering strength in the East Pacific South of Cabo, this will be worth watching in the coming days as it is expected to strengthen into another tropical storm in the next 48 hours.
Local temps from around the area were, at my location on the South shore of LAKE GREGORY, 75/51, TWIN PEAKS-74/56, RIM FOREST-74/58, USFS ROCK CAMP Fire Station-78/57, N,LK/ARRW 88/53, and KELLER PEAK-66/55.
TODAYS FIRE DANGER LEVEL: HIGH.
Check the latest “EL NINO” update and graphs at the bottom of this page.

Current Lake Gregory Weather Conditions:


2014/2015 “EL NINO” September 19th, Update.
Screenshot (5)
This graph depicts the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation region 3.4) general consensus update for the upcoming winter.
One of the reasons forecasters are having such a hard time with the El Nino forecast is, generally, the Pacific Basin warms in the East end and along the Equator during the beginning phase of an El Nino. While this is the case at this time, the rest of the Pacific Basin is warmer than normal as well. SSTs all the way up in the Gulf of Alaska as well as the west pacific are all much warmer than normal for this time of year. So, for the Pacific Basin as a whole, North and South as well as East to West, SSTs are above what would be considered Normal.
In this case the whole ocean is warmer than normal making it hard to get a signal on ENSO. When the Ocean warms in an area the Atmosphere responds by increased Convection, Wind and clouds develop causing cooling of the ocean. The fact that we have tied the highest number of Hurricanes ever recorded on the East Pacific at this time, this may be evidence of the Atmosphere reacting to the above normal SSTs in our area. During the El Nino, the Jet stream drops South toward the Equator relative to the warmer water and picks up Tropical Moisture then delivers it into the Southern part of the US, thus cooling that area of the Equatorial Pacific. This is the mechanism the Earth uses to maintain Ocean and Land Temperatures as well as the Moisture content of the atmosphere. Meanwhile, the North-Eastern part of the Country will typically be warmer and drier than normal during this time.
On another note, the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) has been Negative for several years and could be a big part of the reason we have been in a drought in SoCal. The PDO has turned to Positive which typically, the PDO and El Nino work together. The Consensus on the graph has increased the possibility once again of an El Nino.

*RC, my opinion.