Sunday, January 19, 2025

/0 Comments/in /by

 

TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST

..Sunday, 01-19-2025
..Good Morning.
..It’s looking like another crazy weather week next week.
..HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
..RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE MOUNTAINS, VALLEYS AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY. Northeast Winds from 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph with Isolated gusts to 75 mph possible in the wind favored areas.
..RELATIVE HUMIDITY is expected to be from 15 to 20 percent on Monday, then falling to 5 to 8 percent on Tuesday with poor overnight recovery.
..Isolated gusts up to 75 mph on the favored coastal slopes and canyons in the San Bernardino and Santa Ana Mountains.

..First off, today we will have a pretty calm day with cool temperatures and a weak onshore flow across most of SoCal. There are areas of patchy light Fog across parts of SoCal and the Coast this morning.
..Then as we head into the work week, Monday and Tuesday, what may be a fairly strong Santa Ana wind event will develop late in the day on Monday, lasting into Tuesday afternoon. This will be a cold wind event due to cold air advection from the Great Basin Region.
..Surface High pressure will move over the Great Bain Region peaking Monday at ~1040mbs, while the SoCal Coast will be at ~1024mbs. This will create an offshore pressure gradient from the Interior West to the SoCal Coastal Region.
..Along with the offshore pressure gradient, there will be upper level support as a short wave passes over the area late on Monday into Tuesday morning. This is when the NE winds will be the strongest across the local Mountains, Cajon Pass, Lytle Creek Drainage, and the local foothills.
..This will not be a prolonged winds event.
..Wednesday things will settle back down as High pressure moves Inland over the West.
..Another Short Wave will pass to our East Thursday with SoCal sandwiched between a Cut off High sitting just offshore, and the Short Wave passing to our East. This will bring another brief period of weaker NE winds for SoCal on Thursday.
..Friday the Cut Off High quickly moves out and is followed with what may be rain for SoCal on Saturday, as a Closed Low drops South along the Coast then into SoCal.
..Currently the chances for rain are running around 20-30% for next weekend. This is a long way out and the details will be more certain later in the work week next week.
..However, this is the first chance we’ve seen in a long time for a chance of rain. Currently the SoCal area is running at <5% of normal for this time of year for accumulated rainfall. ..CRYSTAL BALL OUTLOOK: ..Looking out towards the end of January, there will be a chance for what may be our first wetting rainfall so far. ..The longer range forecast models are still not in agreement on this but it's something to hope for to end this years long fire season. RC ..My weather outlooks are what I think are the most likely outlook for our area. RC

Saturday, October 23, 2021

/0 Comments/in /by

TODAY’S LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES:

Animated map
Animation-img

 

TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:


..Good Morning.
..This morning, a weak Trough is passing over SoCal. As a result, the Marine layer has moved inland and is up to around 5500′ thick, with fog and clouds along and below the Rim.
..This will slowly clear out today as the Trough moves out of the area. However morning fog and low clouds can be expected again overnight and in the morning tomorrow.
..Temperatures will be running in the upper 50s to mid 60s today across the mountains as well as on Sunday.
..Late Sunday as a much stronger system approaches the West, we will see gusty winds develop along the Rim and front country in advance of a pretty wet system that will bring a good wetting rain to the area through early Tuesday morning.
..This system will have support of an Atmospheric River (AR) that will be dying out as it passes over SoCal. However, it will be strong enough to bring up to 2 inches of rain in some local mountain upslope areas. The recent burn areas need to keep watch over the recently burned hills for the possibility of flash Flooding or mud flows.
..The snow levels due to the AR from the South will keep those levels at 7500′ and above for this storm.
..As this will be the first rain that will likely cause some run off, this is a good time to check those drainage areas to make sure they are clear of debris.
..Tuesday and for the rest of the week ahead, we will have clearing skies and warming temperatures as High pressure rebuilds into the SoCal region. RC
..That’s it for now, have a good day! RC

 

Yesterday’s High and Low temperatures and current winds:

Crestline-65/47*, Playground Dr-59/44*, Cdr-Pines Park-61/44*, Dart Canyon-65/48*, Twin-Peaks-60/43*, Rim Forest-66/41*, Lake Arrowhead-64/45*, Arrowhead Villas-60/44*, Heaps Peak-60/44*, Running Springs-62/45*, Arrowbear-65/37*, Green Valley Lk-59/42*, Big Bear-66/45*, Upper Waterman Canyon-68/49*, Lower Waterman Canyon-74/53*, San Berdo-79/53*, Devore Heights-75/52*, Cajon Pass-70/52*, Rock Camp-65/41*, Sky Park-59/45*.