ENSO Forecast IRI ENSO Predictions Plume Published: August 19, 2022
Note on interpreting model forecasts The following graph and table show forecasts made by dynamical and statistical models for SST in the Nino 3.4 region for nine overlapping 3-month periods. Note that the expected skills of the models, based on historical performance, are not equal to one another. The skills also generally decrease as the lead time increases. Thirdly, forecasts made at some times of the year generally have higher skill than forecasts made at other times of the year–namely, they are better when made between June and December than when they are made between February and May. Differences among the forecasts of the models reflect both differences in model design, and actual uncertainty in the forecast of the possible future SST scenario.
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August 2022 Quick Look published: August 19, 2022 A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)
In mid-August, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific remain below-average. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables have remained consistent with La Niña conditions, strengthening slightly. A CPC La Niña Advisory still remains in place for August 2022. A large majority of the models in the plume predict SSTs to remain below-normal at the level of a La Niña until at least Dec-Feb 2023. Similar to the most-recent official CPC ENSO Outlook issued on August 11, 2022, the objective model-based ENSO outlook forecasts a continuation of the La Niña event with moderate probability during Sep-Nov 2022, continuing into boreal fall and winter. ENSO-neutral becomes the most likely category in Jan-Mar 2023 onward.