ENSO Forecast

November 2022 Quick Look

Published: November 18, 2022

A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)

In mid-November, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific remain below-average. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables have remained consistent with La Niña conditions, though there is a large drop in SOI value recently (+6.9 as of 16 November, 2022). A CPC La Niña Advisory still remains in place for November 2022. Several models in the plume predict SSTs to remain below-normal at the level of a La Niña until at least Jan-Mar 2023. Similar to the most-recent official CPC ENSO Outlook issued on November 10, 2022, the IRI objective model-based ENSO outlook forecasts a continuation of the La Niña event with high probability during Dec-Feb, which decreases to 56% in Jan-Mar 2023. Based on objective ENSO forecasts, La Niña is expected to transition into ENSO-neutral during Feb-Apr 2023, which remains the most likely category until Jun-Aug 2023. The likelihood of El Niño remains very low through Apr-Jun, but rises to 30% in May-Jul 2023, and becomes the dominant category at 47% in Jul-Sep 2023.

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