Sunday, January 19, 2025
TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST
..Sunday, 01-19-2025
..Good Morning.
..It’s looking like another crazy weather week next week.
..HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
..RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE MOUNTAINS, VALLEYS AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY. Northeast Winds from 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph with Isolated gusts to 75 mph possible in the wind favored areas.
..RELATIVE HUMIDITY is expected to be from 15 to 20 percent on Monday, then falling to 5 to 8 percent on Tuesday with poor overnight recovery.
..Isolated gusts up to 75 mph on the favored coastal slopes and canyons in the San Bernardino and Santa Ana Mountains.
..First off, today we will have a pretty calm day with cool temperatures and a weak onshore flow across most of SoCal. There are areas of patchy light Fog across parts of SoCal and the Coast this morning.
..Then as we head into the work week, Monday and Tuesday, what may be a fairly strong Santa Ana wind event will develop late in the day on Monday, lasting into Tuesday afternoon. This will be a cold wind event due to cold air advection from the Great Basin Region.
..Surface High pressure will move over the Great Bain Region peaking Monday at ~1040mbs, while the SoCal Coast will be at ~1024mbs. This will create an offshore pressure gradient from the Interior West to the SoCal Coastal Region.
..Along with the offshore pressure gradient, there will be upper level support as a short wave passes over the area late on Monday into Tuesday morning. This is when the NE winds will be the strongest across the local Mountains, Cajon Pass, Lytle Creek Drainage, and the local foothills.
..This will not be a prolonged winds event.
..Wednesday things will settle back down as High pressure moves Inland over the West.
..Another Short Wave will pass to our East Thursday with SoCal sandwiched between a Cut off High sitting just offshore, and the Short Wave passing to our East. This will bring another brief period of weaker NE winds for SoCal on Thursday.
..Friday the Cut Off High quickly moves out and is followed with what may be rain for SoCal on Saturday, as a Closed Low drops South along the Coast then into SoCal.
..Currently the chances for rain are running around 20-30% for next weekend. This is a long way out and the details will be more certain later in the work week next week.
..However, this is the first chance we’ve seen in a long time for a chance of rain. Currently the SoCal area is running at <5% of normal for this time of year for accumulated rainfall.
..CRYSTAL BALL OUTLOOK:
..Looking out towards the end of January, there will be a chance for what may be our first wetting rainfall so far.
..The longer range forecast models are still not in agreement on this but it's something to hope for to end this years long fire season. RC
..My weather outlooks are what I think are the most likely outlook for our area. RC