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Tropical Weather Outlook Text Tropical Weather Discussion

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of
Acapulco is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early
next week. This disturbance is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, well south of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association
with a broad area of low pressure centered about 1350 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Upper-level winds appear to be conducive for further development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next two or three
days while the disturbance moves west-northwestward or northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph. After that time, conditions are expected to become
less favorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.


Southern California: Normal significant large fire potential is expected across the region during the
outlook period except in the foothills and coastal mountains where Above Normal significant large fire
potential is expected July through September. Below Normal significant wildland fire potential is expected
in the southern Sierra in July. Above Normal significant large fire potential is expected along the coastal
mountains surrounding Los Angeles, Santa Barbara, and San Diego in October. Other areas can expect
Normal significant large fire potential in October.
Another cooler and wetter than average month for Southern California passed into the record books as
June 2019 ended. A persistent longwave trough over the Pacific Northwest caused onshore flow to occur
many of the past 30 days, which resulted in widespread stratus and marine layer coverage. However, over
central California, temperatures trended a bit above average in June. This was due in part to a transitory
ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific, which moved inland over the northern half of the state from
time to time. The San Joaquin Valley, in particular, was warmer than average in June with many sunny
and warm days.
Precipitation, while spotty, was above normal over portions of the Sierras as well as areas of Southern
California. Areas south and east of Santa Barbara County generally average less than a quarter of an inch
of rain in June, so even a few hundredths of an inch of drizzle or light rain is enough to skew totals to well
above normal when expressed as a percentage. However, some of the rain in the Sierras fell as moderate
shower activity brought about by a pair of low pressure areas stalled over Southern California. Curiously,
none of these bouts of precipitation can be attributed to the monsoon, which has not shown much of an
inclination to move northward out of Mexico.
Long-term models suggest temperatures will finally return to near or even above normal in July. But with
cooler than average sea surface temperatures covering much of the Eastern Pacific, onshore flow may
stubbornly continue at an above average frequency into July. This may keep immediate coastal areas a
bit cooler than normal. Further inland, above normal temperatures may develop in response to expected
ridging over the Southwest. The monsoon is still expected to be far more prevalent east of the district and
the total number of lightning days over the Sierras and other mountainous areas may be lower than normal
again this year.
Large fire potential is expected to climb to above normal levels over the central part of the state in part due
to an absence of wet thunderstorms, which can quell mid-summer fuel moisture conditions. Fuels in these
areas have suffered the extreme effects of the bark beetle infestation and there are large stands of heavy
fuels that are either dead, or in very poor vegetative health. These areas will likely be the primary driver of
resource demand through the summer. Later in the fall, once offshore winds arrive, the highest fire
potential will likely be over Southern California where widespread stands of cured, seasonal grasses stand
due to last winter’s wet weather.

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