Monday, Jan 27, 2020

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TODAY’S LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES:

 


TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:

..Good Morning. RIP Kobe.
..Yesterday’s Helicopter crash with 9 souls aboard was a tragic occurrence. Weather most likely played a large role in the crash. We won’t know for some time, but flying in IFR conditions is always tricky. Thoughts and prayers for all involved.
..I have posted a video from early Sunday before all of the details were known by Juan Browne, an experienced pilot, with his update from yesterday. Below.
..This morning North East winds are blowing across the mountains and in the Canyons, Waterman Canyon WX/ST has NE winds from 17-28mph. This is from an area of High pressure located over the Great Basin. This mornings pressure gradient from Tonopah to LAX is running from 3-5mbs offshore. The winds will likely increase throughout the morning then taper off by late this afternoon. Temperatures will be a little cooler due to the NE winds. Clear skies can be expected today.
..Tuesday, Onshore flow will return by the afternoon as a weak Trough moves through the PAC-NW. Lower pressure in the Great Basin and Higher Pressure offshore of SoCal will bring in the SW flow for around 24hours. Skies will continue to be clear with temperatures in the mid 50s expected for most mountain locations.
..Wednesday, North East winds will return as the area of Low pressure in the Great Basin moves East and is replaced by an area of High pressure. Temperatures will begin to rise as High pressure builds in to the West Coast and the entire Inland region. Offshore flow will continue through Saturday. Periods of gusty NE winds will be likely through Saturday with warmer than normal temperatures across all of SoCal. The Valleys will see temperatures in the 80s and possibly a few areas may see 90*. The Mountains will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
..Then for Sunday and Monday of next week, A pretty strong Trough will push through the blocking area of High pressure off of the California Coast. This Trough is expected to begin breaking down the static High that has acted as a block to the storm track for SoCal over the last several weeks. The High will relocate to a more favorable location for the storm track to return to a more normal pattern for this time of year. While rain or snow may not reach us in the first system, it should open the door for more to follow. While this is a long way out, it’s how it looks this morning.
..Have a good day, and thanks for joining me at lakegregoryweather.com.

Yesterday’s High and Low temperatures were:
Crestline-57/41*, Playground Dr-50/38*, Twin-Peaks-52/36*, Rim Forest-53/36*, Lake Arrowhead Village-57/37*, Heaps Peak/Running-Springs-48/32*, Green Valley lk-66/31*, Big-Bear-54/24*, Wtrmn-Cyn-61/48*, San-Berdo-66/44*.

Sunday, Jan 26, 2020

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TODAY’S LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES:

 


TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:

..Good Morning. 8:00am update, there is Fog moving into the lower elevations and in San Bernardino Valley. This may creep up to the Crestline bridge as the Frontal passage moves through.
..Another beautiful morning across the Mountain region.
..Today we will have a weak front pass through this afternoon. Temperatures will be a little cooler along with gusty SW winds at times today. We may pick up a few clouds as well during the Frontal passage. Overall we will have another nice day today.
..Monday, behind the departing Trough, High pressure will begin to build into the South West anchored just off of Central California Coast. This will become our main weather feature for the next 7-10 days.
..An Eastern Pacific based area of High pressure will be mostly stationary through the next several days. We will have one more weak Trough pass through around Tuesday night helping to keep temperatures down until then.
..Wednesday the High off of the Central Coast will begin to rapidly strengthen to around 1036mbs over the next couple days, (Thursday and Friday). As a result, we will see temperatures climb into the upper 60s to low 70s in the mountains with mid to upper 80s in the Valley through Monday the 3rd of February. A dry offshore flow with mostly clear skies will be the long and short range forecast through Feb 3rd.
..Then around the 4th of Feb, things begin to change again. At that time, the long range Global pattern looks like it will begin a major change to what may be a wetter pattern for our area. On the 500mb charts it looks there will finally be a couple of long wave Troughs develop (for a total of four to five in the Northern Hemisphere) as the stationary High over the West moves East, and out of the picture. An area of Low pressure will replace the stagnant High over the Eastern Pacific which should bring the storm track back towards SoCal. Also, an area of Low pressure from Tropical region will be our first chance for rain during the first week of February.
..This is a long shot, but it’s a possibility looking at the long range “Crystal Ball” Outlook this morning.
..So in recap, much warmer weather Spring like weather will develop by mid week with offshore flow and dry weather through the First week of February. Then it looks like a pattern shift will be likely after the 3rd.
..Have a good day, and thanks for joining me at lakegregoryweather.com.

Yesterday’s High and Low temperatures were:
Crestline-58/45*, Playground Dr-59/45*, Twin-Peaks-59/43*, Rim Forest-63/43*, Lake Arrowhead Village-61/36*, Heap Peak-54/43*, Running-Springs-54/41*, Green Valley lk-59/37*, Big-Bear-56/27*, Wtrmn-Cyn-70/43*, San-Berdo-80/42*.

Saturday, Jan 25, 2020

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TODAY’S LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES:

 


TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:

..Good Morning.
..Here we are, almost the end of another week!
..Today, High pressure over the West will continue to be our dominant Weather feature for SoCal.
Currently gusty NE winds are again blowing in the middle elevations of the front side of the Mountain. Winds gusts are from 10-25mph.
..Clear skies and warm Spring like temperatures will be today’s mountain weather forecast.
..There will be a subtle change for Sunday and Monday from an upper level Trough that will pass over the West. This will bring a change in the winds bringing them to an onshore flow as well as the Marine layer and Fog reaching further Inland, on both days. As far as Ridge Fog goes, I don’t think the moisture from the onshore flow will be enough to make it to the local Foothills, or the local Ridges. Temperatures will cool by 5-7* for both days along with increasing High clouds. No rain is expected from this weak trough.
..Then for Tuesday through for the following five to seven days, Subtropical High pressure will move over the West bringing in mostly clear skies and a warming trend through the period. At this time, the Polar Jet is to our North and the Subtropical Jet is to our South. Locally we are in a stagnant zone of High pressure that is sitting off the Central West Coast of California and will remain there for the foreseeable future.
..The area of High pressure that is sitting to our West, is acting like a buffer, forcing the storm track to our North. So until that area of High pressure relocates, we will continue to be in a Spring like pattern here in SoCal.
..Have a good day, and thanks for joining me at lakegregoryweather.com.

Yesterday’s High and Low temperatures were:
Crestline-62/35*, Playground Dr-58/41*, Twin-Peaks-58/41*, Rim Forest-64/43*, Lake Arrowhead Village-62/30*, Running-Springs-53/41*, Green Valley lk-55/30*, Big-Bear-56/22*, Wtrmn-Cyn-70/52*, San-Berdo-78/47*.

Friday, Jan 24, 2020

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TODAY’S LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES:

 


TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:

..Good Morning.
..Another beautiful morning across the Mountain!
..Light NE winds will continue for the next couple of days along with high clouds from 15-22k’.
..This morning in the mid slope areas of the front side of the foothills, NE winds are a little stronger with gusts from 5-15mph mainly in the Waterman canyon area and most likely along HWY 330 at similar elevations.
..The weather will be pretty stable for the weekend as High pressure over the Great Basin will be the dominant feature. Temperatures will warm up a little today from yesterday’s daytime highs, but still in the upper 50s to low 60s.
..Sunday, a weak Trough will pass to our North. We will only see minor changes in our weather as we will be on the bottom end of that Trough. The NE winds will turn to the SW as the system moves through. Slight cooling can be expected Sunday and Monday. Some gusty winds along with more High clouds will be about it.
..As the Trough heads East Monday, we will see a period of NE flow return before a Sub Tropical area of High pressure sets up over the region. This will bring warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 60s for the mountains by mid week, and possibly into the mid 80s in the Valley.
..Looking out further into the Crystal Ball Forecast window, I still don’t see any major changes in our weather through the end of January or for the first week of February. Subtropical High pressure will remain the dominant player in our weather for SoCal. However, don’t get to used to the weather as we head toward the Spring season, the weather will begin to change due to the Sun’s angle on the Earth. The Jetstream will likely become more favorable for West Coast storms as it begin it’s trek back North for the Summer months.
..Please check out the website ( Lakegregoryweather.com ) for the Facebook users, as it has much more weather information including live streaming webcams, live sat pics, and Radar.
..Have a good day, and thanks for joining me at lakegregoryweather.com.

Yesterday’s High and Low temperatures were:
Crestline-55/34*, Playground Dr-50/42*, Twin-Peaks-51/43*, Rim Forest-59/43*, Lake Arrowhead Village-51/29*, Running-Springs-50/42*, Green Valley lk-53/29*, Big-Bear-50/22*, Wtrmn-Cyn-66/54*, San-Berdo-78/48*.

Thursday, Jan 23, 2020

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TODAY’S LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES:

 


TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:

..Good Morning.
..We have clear skies for the whole area this morning with no Fog anywhere close. There are gusty NE winds in the Waterman canyon area so be aware for those.
..High pressure over the Great Basin will keep us in a weak offshore flow for the next couple days. This will keep the Marine layer at bay for now. Temperatures will really begin to warm up today with 5-8* warmer temperatures over yesterday’s.
..Warmer temperatures will last through Saturday, then a quick moving and weak Trough will pass through on Sunday and Monday. This will bring a short return to onshore flow, Coastal Fog, along with cooler temperatures.
..Monday night, A Subtropical area of High pressure High pressure will return to the West with warmer temperatures returning through the work week next week.
..Since there isn’t much going on with our weather here in SoCal, I decided to take a good look at the long range outlook from a global view.
..Currently there are 3 long wave troughs in the Northern Hemisphere. This is means that we will be in a very stable pattern for the next seven to ten days. However, looking out to the end of the first week in February, there are signs of change. The Hemispheric maps are in favor of one or two more troughs developing by then, for a total of four to five, a good sign. Also, the almost stationary area of High pressure that has been blocking the storm track from SoCal and diverting the bulk of precipitation to our North, finally is expected to begin to move, and re-locate to a more favorable location for the storm track to return to SoCal.
..Although the ENSO ( El Nino Southern Oscillation) signal is weak, there are some influences from the SST’s (sea surface temperatures) that we are currently approaching the threshold of a weak El Nino, .05*c in ENSO region 3.4, the area that affects us.
..Also, there has been a steady flow of Sub-Tropical moisture via the Sub Tropical Jet, into the Southern States for several months now. This has disrupted the normal Winter in the mid Western States, with warmer than normal temperatures. My Relatives that live in the Mid West have all commented to me how warm this Winter has been there, until now. So yes, there is some El Nino type influence going on with the overall weather picture.
..As we head into the latter part of our Winter months, and Spring, it will be interesting to see what happens with the Sub Tropical Jet.
..As we head into the Spring, things could get really interesting here if the ST Jet moves North just a little bit into SoCal..
..Please check out the website ( Lakegregoryweather.com ) for the Facebook users, as it has much more weather information including live streaming webcams, live sat pics, and Radar.
..Have a good day, and thanks for joining me at lakegregoryweather.com.

Yesterday’s High and Low temperatures were:
Crestline-51/41*, Playground Dr-46/37*, Twin-Peaks-46/39*, Rim Forest-53/40*, Lake Arrowhead Village-50/39*, Running-Springs-44/38*, Green Valley lk-44/39*, Big-Bear-49/25*, Wtrmn-Cyn-57/49*, San-Berdo-65/46*.

Wednesday, Jan 22, 2020

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TODAY’S LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES:

 


TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:

..Good Morning.
..This morning we have clear skies across the mountain as of 6:00am. However, there is a layer of Fog starting around the 3500′ level to the bottom of Waterman Canyon. This will probably creep up to the Crestline Bridge before dissipating later this morning.
..The area of Low pressure that brought cloudy skies to the area yesterday along with drizzle and light rain showers toward the Coast, has moved into New Mexico and Texas overnight. As the remnants of the Trough clears out, High pressure will begin building in today, clearing out the morning Fog and bringing in clear skies, and warmer temperatures. The Sunrise this morning was nice with the Fog and High clouds.
..Tomorrow we will begin to warm up as the upper level area of High pressure takes hold. Temperatures will peak Saturday, then the a Trough will approach the West Coast bringing in cooler temperatures for Sunday and Monday.
..This will be a similar system to what we just had with increasing clouds, Ridge Fog, along with drizzle or a shower as the Front moves through. No measurable rain is expected at this time.
..Then as the system moves out late Monday, A Sub Tropical High will move over the West with a return of warmer temperatures and lots of sunshine.
..The MJO has gone into Phase 7 and is weak. So I expect High pressure with dry and warm weather will be the forecast for the next five to ten days, at least.
..On another note, please check out the website ( Lakegregoryweather.com ) for the Facebook users, as it has much more weather information including live streaming webcams, live sat pics, and Radar.
..Have a good day, and thanks for joining me at lakegregoryweather.com.

Yesterday’s High and Low temperatures were:
Crestline-44/35*, Twin-Peaks-40/35*, Rim Forest-40/34*, Lake Arrowhead Village-49/29*, Running-Springs-44/36*, Green Valley lake-46/33*, Big-Bear-49/36*, Wtrmn-Cyn-49/41*, San-Berdo-59/48*.