Thursday, November 23, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning. Hope you all have a Happy Thanksgiving!
This morning we have beautiful weather for the Holiday. Light and variable winds with above normally warm temperatures will be the days forecast. Temperatures should peak today then we will begin a slow cooling trend. High pressure that has given us such nice and abnormally warm weather will begin to weaken as a trough of low pressure arrives to the Pac-NW this weekend. We will see temperatures lower to the 60s by Monday. Sunday we may see an increase in clouds over the area with a chance for fog along the Rim a possibility as well, for Sunday night, and Monday morning, as the tail end of the trough moves through SoCal. Behind the departing trough Monday afternoon, we will see a return of NE winds possibly strong from Monday night through Tuesday morning as the pressure gradient from Tonopah to San Diego becomes fairly tight. Temperatures will be much cooler locally due to cold air advection over the Mountain regions. Highs today around the area will run from 72-77* with overnight lows in the 50s below 5800′, and in the mid 30s to low 40 above 6000′. No rain is expected other than the possibility of some drizzle Monday night through the next five days. I’m still holding hope for a system to come through the first of December. Have a great Day and enjoy the Holiday weekend. RC. Thank You for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com *RC

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
Well it looks like Mother Nature has given us very nice weather for the Thanksgiving Weekend. Today we will have gusty NE winds across the area from 5-15mph except below the passes and in the canyons where gusty winds from 10-40mph will be possible. Temperatures will be quite warm for this time of year with the possibility of many locations around SoCal to break or tie the warmest recorded Highs for their area. A ridge of High pressure will keep temperatures warm through Saturday. Highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s across all of the local area. San Bernardino will be in the upper 80s to low 90s through Saturday. Sunday, the Ridge of High pressure will begin to break down as a trough of Low pressure will push it out of the area. Much cooler temperatures will move across the area as the trough passes through the West Coast of California. There will be a chance for increasing clouds on Monday and Tuesday as the trough passes through the SoCal region. As for a chance of rain? It’s hard to say at this time, but maybe. This morning it looks like the moisture will stay from the Mammoth/Central CA. Point Conception area and North from there, but there is a wave of vorticity that will pass through Monday/Tuesday so I’ll be watching this. On the longer range outlook, another chance for moisture will arrive on December 2nd, and again on the 5th as it looks this morning. Enjoy the Thanksgiving Holiday Weekend and if you are driving to a weekend destination, use extra caution. Have a good Day and Thank You for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com *RC

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
High clouds will continue to pass over today making for another colorful sunrise. Overall, today will be a little warmer as High pressure develops across most of the Southwest today. Temperatures will be on the rise especially in the Valleys, West of the mountains. This morning gusty NE winds are blowing along the foothills. Waterman Canyon and San Bernardino Weather Stations both have NE winds gusting to 25mph~. Highs today for Crestline and Lake Arrowhead will be from 68-74* with overnight lows from 45-50*. Big Bear, Running Springs and Green Valley Lake will see temperatures today running from 60-65* with overnight lows from 32* in Big Bear to 42* in the Running Springs and GVL areas. Temperatures around the area will peak on Thanksgiving Day with highs into the upper 60s to mid 70s in the warmer areas. For San Bernardino and the Inland Valleys, temperatures will peak Thursday at around 90-92*. Friday, a cooling trend will begin as the area of High pressure begins to weaken, and move to the East. Temperatures will be back to normal by Monday of next week. I’m still hopeful for a pattern change around the beginning of December. There are a couple of waves on the Thickness chart forecasted to pass through SoCal during the first week of December. Fingers crossed. December through March are typically our wettest months. So we are just getting started. January and February are typically the coldest months. March is a transitional time when storms from the North collide with warm wet air masses from the south. This is when we can get heavy wet snows and or rain. Have a good Day and Thank You for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com *RC

Monday, November 20, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
For today, High pressure over the Great Basin, and the off of the West coast will be the dominate feature in our weather for the week ahead. As the High pressure builds across all of SoCal, temperatures will rise as well. Today we can expect to see temperatures locally in the upper 60s about 10* warmer than yesterday. This trend will continue through Saturday before we see a break in the warm temps. San Bernardino will see highs today near 80* and into the 90s by Wednesday and Thursday. The local mountains will see temperatures in to the mid 70s for Thanksgiving Day. Upper level clouds will pass over the area today and tomorrow from the south as the STJ continues to push across the South Western States. Rain on and off to our North will stay there through the week as the local High buffers us from any chance for rain over the next five to seven days. Winds will develop from the Northeast today as the pressure gradient develops across the SoCal region between Tonopah and San Diego. We will have increased fire danger over the next few days so be extra careful if you plan to BBQ or use any outdoor fire. On the longer range outlook, it looks like we may see a pattern change beginning Sunday, or Monday of next week. A cooling trend will begin at that time along with what looks like a chance for some moisture at the end of the month or the first week of December. Keep your fingers crossed for that. So far, from the looks of things, the La Nina weather patterns are in place for the West Coast. Thank You for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com *RC

Sunday, November 19, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
Cold air advection played a big part in last nights temperatures around the area. At my W/S here, my overnight low temp was 28*, while Arrowhead and Twin Peaks had overnight low in the mid 30s. Cold air sinks. Across the whole area this morning winds are turning to the NE but still weak at this time running from 2-10mph. High pressure over the Great Basin will build over the next couple of days which should bring stronger NE winds to the area. This morning the pressure gradient is running about 9mb higher at Tonopah than San Diego. The gradient will increase as the pressure builds over the Great Basin. Also another area of high pressure will build to our south west. The two will work together bringing in warmer temperatures to all of SoCal for the next five days. Thanksgiving Day, temperatures will peak for SoCal with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s for the Inland Valleys. The Mountains will see temperatures in the 70s with clear skies. The chart above shows the weather forecast for Tuesday with an area of low pressure just to our North. Rain will continue in the Pac-NW through the week. However, this will signal the beginning of a possible change in the weather pattern for SoCal. The High that has blocked all of the weather systems from the North from making it to SoCal, is forecast to shift East. The other High to our West will shift further to the West. This should open the door for a cold weather system to arrive here around the 30th of November. Snow?? Maybe. The 540dm line is forecast to drop south to San Diego at that time which means a cold storm for us will be likely. This is a waze out. But it’s hopeful as it looks today. Today we will have clear skies but an increase in high clouds will move into the SoCal skies as the STJ continues to push Sub Tropical moisture in the upper levels over the Southwestern US for Monday and Tuesday. While no rain is expected here, other parts of the country will have Wintery Weather for the Holiday week. Be sure to check the NWS Forecast for your travel destinations. Temperatures for the local area today will be in the mid to upper 50s for most areas from Crestline to Arrowhead, and the surrounding locations. Running Springs, Green Valley Lake and Big Bear will see highs today in the mid 50s as well. Overnight lows will be in the teens and 20s for Big Bear and Green Valley Lake, Running Springs will be a little warmer in the 30s. Across all of the Mountain, temperatures will warm up through the work week ahead. Arrowhead and Crestline will see temperatures in the low to mid 70s by Thursday. Then a cooling trend will begin. Well, I’ve blabbed on enough for today. On the website main page, I have posted a couple of videos worth watching, one is on preparedness for flooding from wildfires in California, the other is video on the rains in NorCal and the Oroville Dam. Thank You for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com *RC

Saturday, November 18, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
Today we have mostly clear skies across the area except for light fog in the Crestline area. The local HWYs are all clear of weather related problems. Surface High pressure over the Great Basin, and a building upper level High over and West of Baja California will dictate our weather for the next five to seven days. Overnight, cold air advection from the Great Basin brought some very cold temperatures to Green Valley Lake 27*, and Big Bear at, 16* overnight. Most of the other areas were in the low to mid 30s. Today we should be cooler with highs around the area in the mid to upper 50s and maybe a few areas seeing low 60s. Overnight tonight most areas will be in the low to mid 30s except for the coldest area like BB and GVL that will be in the mid to upper 20s. For the next several days, a Ridge of High pressure will dominate our weather in SoCal. A warming trend that will peak on Thanksgiving Day with highs in the Valleys in the 90s. Here in the Mountains, we will see highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clear skies with a North East flow becoming gusty at times over the next few days will be about it. The long range outlook shows the possibility of a pattern change around the first of December. We’ll keep our fingers crossed for that. On the website main page, I have posted a couple of videos worth watching, one is on preparedness for flooding from wildfires in California, the other is video on the rains in NorCal and the Oroville Dam. Thank You for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com *RC

Friday, November 17, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
Sorry to be running so late, got a bout with the flu. Overnight a weak front has passed through SoCal leaving a couple sprinkles over our area. Nothing measureable. The clouds we had this morning should be out of the area for good by now. As the day progresses, clearing skies and a wind change becoming a North East flow will begin. Cold air advection from the Great Basin into the mountain regions will keep our daytime temperatures cool. Highs today for the Crestline and Lake Arrowhead areas will be in the mid to upper 50s with overnight lows in the low to mid 30s. Running Springs, Green Valley Lake and Big Bear will have high temperatures today in the mid to upper 50s with overnight lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. All areas will have winds from the NE by this afternoon or early evening, becoming gusty at times from 5-15mph and higher gusts in the wind prone areas, possibly to 35mph. High pressure will build over the next two days over the Great Basin then move East, Sunday. A area of low pressure will move into NorCal for Monday and Tuesday, here we will return to a onshore flow and possibly a return of a Marine layer locally. Then late Tuesday through Friday, High pressure to our South will develop bringing a return of weak Northerly flow, and much warmer temperatures to all of SoCal. Highs for Thanksgiving Day in SoCal will be in the 80s in the Valleys and in the low to mid 70s for the local Mountains. So we can expect to see very nice weather and warm temperatures for the Holiday. After we get through the Holiday, a pattern change looks like a good possibility for SoCal from the end of November, through the first week of December. Thank You for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com *RC

Thursday, November 16, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
Today we will see increasing clouds from a system that will stay mostly north of SoCal. Late this afternoon and overnight we may see fog develop along the ridges. All local HWYS are clear of any weather related delays this morning. Currently, as of 5am, the front is located north of Pt. Conception. As it moves south, this front will dissipate along with any chances for any measureable precipitation as well. Our best chance for drizzle or a sprinkle will be around midnight tonight. Tomorrow as the front moves East, we will have NE winds develop and dry weather. This will cause the fire Danger levels to increase locally, through Sunday. High pressure will again build in the Great Basin and to our south. So the weather will be warmer and dry for the next 5-7 days in SoCal. Temperatures today will be in the low to mid 50s across the mountain. Overnight lows will vary quite a bit as cold air arrives to the area. Crestline and Arrowhead will have lows in the upper 30s, while Green Valley Lake will dip into the upper 20s to low 30s. Running Springs will have overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s. Cold air will arrive tomorrow night dropping overnight lows another 5-10 degrees across much of the area Friday night into Saturday morning. Cold gusty NE winds can be expected for Friday afternoon and Saturday. On the longer range outlook, I don’t see any big changes in the weather through the end of the Month. Thank You for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com *RC

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

 

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Nov 23rd 500mb


Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning. HAPPY 25th BIRTHDAY, CASEY.
Not much change from the last several days. High clouds today with a SW flow, and temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Tomorrow, we will see increasing high clouds as a storm approaches the PAC-NW. Rain and snow at the higher elevations will be the forecast to our North, while we have increasing clouds Thursday. Thursday night through Friday morning, clouds and possibly some Ridge fog will develop locally with drizzle and or a shower will all be likely through the morning hours. Cooler temperatures will move into the area as High pressure builds behind the departing low. Over the Great Basin High pressure will develop bringing SoCal a round of Santa Ana type winds and low humidity’s once again, for later Friday and Saturday, Cold air and gusty NE winds will move over the mountains bringing temperatures down to the low to mid 50s for Friday and Saturday with Big Bear and Green Valley Lake looking for highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Overnight lows will be colder as well with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s for most areas. Sunday we will start to warm up again as a new system moves through NorCal bringing a return of onshore flow to SoCal.
So now for the big question, I have had lots of emails and messages for the weather outlook for Thanksgiving Day. Above is a 500mb chart for the forecast of Thanksgiving day. High pressure is expected for SoCal along with temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. So as it stands currently, we will have very nice weather for all of the Mountain communities. Of course I will be updating the forecast daily and Turkey-Day will be a focus point. Other than Fog, clouds, and drizzle or light rain Thursday and Friday, no measureable rain is expected through the end of the month for SoCal. Thank You for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com *RC

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
High clouds today will filter the sun as the STJ continues to flow across the southern part of California. To our North, a couple of systems will impact the Northern part of the State, as well as the Fire areas, with rain possibly heavy at times due to the possibility of an Atmospheric River enhancement (AR) helping with moisture. The second system of the two will be colder and bring snow to the Sierras with more rain to the North for later in the work week. Here, there are a couple of possibilities, Wednesday, the winds will pick up across the area signaling a change in our weather here. Thursday night into Friday morning, clouds and fog along the Rim will be likely as weak system pushes through SoCal. The models are in conflict as to when the front will actually arrive here. Either way, we will see fog and clouds Thursday and Friday. Rain from this system is the big question and how much. I expect to see drizzle or light rain to begin late Thursday night and last in to Friday morning. Rainfall totals will be from .10-.25″ as it looks at this time. There is one variable though, The AR will pass along the SoCal area around the same time as the GFS model shows the storm arriving. The ECMWF is a little slower. So there will be a potential of a wetter system than forecast. Another change is, Monday, there will be another chance for a storm to pass through SoCal as a Cut-Off Low. Again, the models are in disagreement on this as well. So we’ll have to keep an eye on that. Either way, it looks like we will see a variety in the weather over the next few days. Temperatures for Crestline and the Lake Arrowhead areas, will be about the same today as yesterday with highs in the mid to upper 60s and overnight lows in the 40s low 50s. Running Springs, Big Bear and Green Valley Lake will have highs today in the low to mid 60s with overnight lows in the 30s to low 40s. San Bernardino has clear skies this morning as far as the Marine Layer goes so no weather related driving issues to deal with there this morning. Highs for SB will be in the upper 70s to 81* with overnight lows in the low to mid 50s. So I will be watching the changes in our weather pattern and the potential of what is to come over the next few days. Updates will be posted each morning, and as needed if things show a rapid change from my mornings forecast. Thank You for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com *RC