Thursday, Feb 21, 2019

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TODAY’S LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES:

 


 

TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:

Good Morning.
It’s going to be a beautiful day! The snow is light and fluffy, and when the Sun comes out, it will be picture perfect, tomorrow.
For today, Snow will continue through most of the day with a couple short breaks between waves passing through the area. Several more inches of snow can be expected today as the cold core of the Low moves through around noon today. A Thunderstorm is not out of the possibility later today as the center of the Low moves through. Snow levels will lower to the 3000′ level by tonight, but the main part of the system will have passed by then. Showers will taper off by this afternoon then another wave will move through around 4pm. After that wave passes, we will begin clearing out with a few residual showers lasting through tomorrow morning. Snowfall amounts for today will be from 1-4″ between 3000-4500′, from 4500-6000′ 4-8′ is expected, and from 6000′ and up, 8-14″ will be likely. The greatest amounts will be above the 7000′ level. Gusty winds and Fog at times today with blowing snow will make for a poor driving day. Snowplows will be out so use caution around those vehicles.
..Friday the clouds will begin to clear as the center of the Low will be over Arizona. A few residual showers will be possible in the morning (mostly in Big Bear and Green Valley Lake) but here we should see the sun for most of the day. Temperatures will remain on the cold side as cold air advection from the Great Basin High will give us a NE flow across the Mountains.
..Saturday we will finally begin a warming trend that will last through the first of March. Temperatures at that time will return to normal as we will be in a more Zonal East to West flow aloft. A Ridge of High pressure will develop to our South West Monday and move North over SoCal early next week. This is when we will be back to more normal temperatures with lots of Sun.
On the long range outlook, the next chance for rain will come around the 3rd of March. Till then, enjoy the beautiful snow covered mountains and sunny skies.
Also, I would like to thank those of you that have donated to the website as that really helps offset the costs of running this website, and the associated subscription fees / maintenance. Thank you. RC
..That’s it for today.
..Have a good Day! RC

Yesterday’s High and Low temperatures were:
Crestline-33/29*-4″S-.60R as of 5am, Twin Peaks-29/26*, Lake Arrowhead-30/27*, Running Springs-27/24*, Big Bear-36/22*, San Berdo-52/40*-.21″R.

Have a great day, and thanks for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com.
Be sure to check out the website for live webcams from around the area along with live weather conditions and a view of Lake Gregory from my weather station at the South side of the lake.

 

Wednesday, Feb 20, 2019

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TODAY’S LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES:

 


540dm is the 32* line

 

TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:

Good Morning.
This will be the last of this series of storms to reach SoCal for awhile.
The NWS has issued a Winter Storm Warning for our area through Friday 1am. Details on the Wx Alerts page.(website)
..A Cold Core Low will slide South today along the Interior West Coast reaching SoCal by later this afternoon through Thursday. This will be a very cold storm for SoCal at 528dm in the core of this system. 540dm is the line used to depict the snow or freezing line. The core of this area of Low pressure is expected to pass over SoCal Thursday. So expect low snow levels with snow accumulations at the 3000-4500′ level of 1-3″, 4500-5500′-3-8″ and 5500-8000′-6-14″ will be possible from this storm. Also Thunderstorms will be possible as the very cold air moves over the region Thursday. Along the Coast we could see a waterspout or two as well. As this area of low pressure moves South today, it will deepen, or strengthen along the way. Strong and gusty winds are expected as well as fog along the Rim and poor driving conditions by late this afternoon or evening.
..Thursday will be cloudy with snow showers for most of the day expect to have WINTERY weather conditions all day with potentially heavy snowfall and accumulations of 3-16″ across the mountain from Waterman canyon to Green Valley Lake and Big Bear. This storm will wind down by Thursday afternoon with slow clearing overnight. A few residual showers will last through Friday morning.
..Saturday through next Tuesday, yea!! Sunshine so you can see when your digging yourself out of the snow! Temperatures will remain cool through Monday before we begin to warm up. A Pattern change will take place mid week next week as High pressure and a Tropical System heads toward SoCal for later in the week. So clear those drains from snow as we may see a good rain coming again. That’s it for today.
..Have a good Day! RC

Yesterday’s High and Low temperatures were:
Crestline-35/27*, Twin Peaks-31/22*, Lake Arrowhead-38/26*, Running Springs-29/21*, Big Bear-34/08*, San Berdo-59/32*.

Have a great day, and thanks for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com.
Be sure to check out the website for live webcams from around the area along with live weather conditions and a view of Lake Gregory from my weather station at the South side of the lake.

 

Tuesday, Feb 19, 2019

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TODAY’S LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES:

 


 

TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:

Good Morning.
This morning we have a weak offshore flow from a transitory area of High pressure over the Great Basin. Cold air from the High pressure area will flow South keeping the local temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s today. We will have plenty of sunshine today but with the fresh snow reflecting all the heat, we won’t see much warmth from the sun. As the area of High Pressure to our North moves to the East today, a Westerly flow will return to SoCal this afternoon.
..Wednesday we will have increasing clouds and fog by the afternoon as another very cold system arrives. Snow levels will fall to the ~3000′ level by Wednesday night as the storm moves in. Snow accumulations at the 3000-4500′ level will be 1-3″, 4500-5500′ will be from 3-6″ and above 5500′ 4-8″ is expected through Thursday afternoon. As the storm arrives, unstable air with very cold temperatures aloft will add a chance for Thundersnow to the area late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Snow to water ratios will be very high for our area as this will be a Continental based system with some over water enhancement. Ratios of 1-8″ are expected locally.
..Thursday will be stormy with snow across the mountain. Driving conditions will be very bad with icy roads, gusty winds and foggy conditions locally. All of this will begin to clear out by Thursday late afternoon or early evening. Temperatures will remain cold through the weekend with mostly clear skies. A slow warming trend will begin over the weekend but I do mean slow. Temperatures will warm by around 10* by Wednesday, of next week.
..On the longer range outlook, as we slowly warm up from the deep freeze, the weather patterns will change back to a more SW flow across the SoCal region. By the first week of March, we may see a warm rain with Atmospheric River enhancement Around the 3rd of March.
..Have a good Day! RC

Yesterday’s High and Low temperatures were:
Crestline-35/25*, Twin Peaks-30/18*, Lake Arrowhead-36/19*, Running Springs-26/17*, Big Bear-26/06*, San Berdo-56/39*.

Have a great day, and thanks for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com.
Be sure to check out the website for live webcams from around the area along with live weather conditions and a view of Lake Gregory from my weather station at the South side of the lake.

 

Monday, Feb 18, 2019

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TODAY’S LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES:

 


 

TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:

Good Morning. Happy Birthday Sus! 29 again.
More snow fell during the late afternoon and evening. I received 3″ in Crestline at my location.
..Today we will be clearing out as the area of Low pressure moves from the Great Basin to the East. Behind the departing Trough, cold air advection will follow as Arctic air continues to flow south due to High pressure building into the Great Basin. We will however have lots of sun for the next couple of days as a weak Ridge moves across the West behind the departing Trough. Highs for the next few days will be hard pressed to get out of the low to mid 30s.
..The next system will arrive Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. This will be even colder than the storm we just finished with. Snow levels will be down to the 3000′ level or possible even lower. The local Mountains can expect to receive from 1-3″ below the 4500′ level, 4-8″ below the 6000′ level, and above 6000′ from 4-10″ will be possible. A Winter Storm Warning will be issued for wind and Blowing snow along with poor driving conditions for Wednesday and Thursday. This will be the coldest storm so far this year!
..After Thursday’s storm passes, we will begin a change in the Weather pattern. The resident Low over the West that has brought a pression of storms to the SoCal region will finally break down and move East. A High pressure Ridge will move into the SoCal region bringing in warmer temperatures and almost Spring like weather. But don’t get to comfortable. Remember the MJO? We may see a return of the Pineapple express around the first week of March bringin warm rains back to SoCal.
Have a good Day! RC

Yesterday’s High and Low temperatures were:
Crestline-34/24*-3″snow/.46″R, Twin Peaks-28/18*, Lake Arrowhead-35/21*, Running Springs-27/16*, Big Bear-30/09*, San Berdo-54/34*-.53″R.

Have a great day, and thanks for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com.
Be sure to check out the website for live webcams from around the area along with live weather conditions and a view of Lake Gregory from my weather station at the South side of the lake.

 

Sunday, Feb 17, 2019

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TODAY’S LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES:

 


 

TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:

Good Morning
Yesterday turned out to be a pretty nice day around the area. Temperatures warmed into the upper 30s to low 40s and plenty of Sun to help melt the snow and ice.
…Today we will have increasing clouds again with snow showers starting this morning and lasting through the evening. Snow levels will start out at around the 4500-5000′ level then lower to around the 3500′ level by tonight. So most of the mountain communities will see at least some snow today. This system (or weak wave) will have very limited moisture associated with it as compared to the Atmospheric River (AR) fed system earlier this past week. Precipital water (PWAT) for this storm will be around the .42″ as compared with the AR fed system that had ~1.50″ PWAT. Snowfall amounts will vary from 0-2″ at the 3500-4500′ level, 4500-5500′ will see from 2-4″, and above that 3-6″ will be possible by the end of this storm. Snow showers should end by 2am Monday morning with only a few lingering showers into the morning Sunrise.
..Most of Monday and Tuesday will bring plenty of Sun to the area as we will be in between systems. However, temperatures will not reflect any heating from the Sun as High pressure over the Great Basin will keep us in a cold Northerly flow.
..Wednesday we will again have increasing clouds as another weak system approaches SoCal. This will again bring low elevation snow levels with from 1-6″ of snow across the area depending on your elevation, through Thursday. More on that as the storm gets closer to our area.
..The long range outlook this morning keeps us in a fixed pattern through the 5th of March with systems working through the flow every 48hours +or-. A long wave a Trough of low pressure will remain in place to our East, while High pressure remains in place to our West. This will keep us in the main flow of short wave systems passing over SoCal. Yesterday I threw some for a loop when I mentioned the MJO. That stands for Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) which is an area of convective activity that circles the Equator. There are eight phase spaces that the MJO travels through. Phase 1 and 8 tend to favor rainfall for our area. This is the current location. I hope that helps to clear up that question.
..If you wanted a busy Winter, then you got your wish this year! Enjoy! RC

Yesterday’s High and Low temperatures were:
Crestline-40/29*, Twin Peaks-39/24*, Lake Arrowhead-42/26*, Running Springs-30/22*, Big Bear-35/21*, San Berdo-60/43.

Have a great day, and thanks for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com.
Be sure to check out the website for live webcams from around the area along with live weather conditions and a view of Lake Gregory from my weather station at the South side of the lake.

 

Saturday, Feb 16, 2019

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TODAY’S LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES:

 


 

TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:

Good Morning
..Overnight a few showers moved through the area bringing more rain, and snow to the 4500′ level and above. This is from a deepening Longwave Trough that is currently over the West. Short waves, or weak systems will continue to push through the cyclonic flow over the next few days, as the main area of Low pressure remains mostly stationary over the West. These will bring periods of rain/snow to the SoCal region through Monday.
..Today we should have partly cloudy skies for most of the day. That bright thing out there peaking in and out from behind the clouds is called the Sun. We will have a ~15% chance for a snow shower throughout the day today. Then late this evening another slightly stronger wave will push through the area into Sunday.
..Cold air will continue to flow across the area with low elevation snow expected for Sunday. Snow levels will lower to around the 4000′ level at times through this next wave for Sunday. 1-4″ for the 3500-5500′ level, and 4-10″ is possible above the 5500′ level.
..This system will end late Sunday but we will continue to see very cold temperatures across the whole area.
..For Monday and Tuesday it looks like we will get a brief break from the storms.
..Then for Wednesday night through Thursday, we could see a pretty good storm roll through with low snow levels and decent accumulations once again.
..After that we should see a period of drying out for a few days.
..On the long range outlook, we may see a return of the AR at or about the end of February or early March as the MJO remains stuck in phase 8, and or phase 1. This is a long way out but not unreasonable.
..If you wanted a busy Winter, then you got your wish this year! Enjoy! RC

Yesterday’s High and Low temperatures were:
Crestline-37/31*-1.26″R/S, Twin Peaks-34/30*, Lake Arrowhead-35/29*, Running Springs-32/26* (8.25″S/TTL-Rain corrected), Big Bear-39/24*, San Berdo-58/43.

Have a great day, and thanks for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com.
Be sure to check out the website for live webcams from around the area along with live weather conditions and a view of Lake Gregory from my weather station at the South side of the lake.

 

Friday, Feb 15, 2019

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TODAY’S LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES:

 


 

TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:

Good Morning.
..Yesterday turned out to be all that was expected and more. High winds gusting 65mph in some areas, along with rainrates of up to 2.00″ pr/hr at times, caused lots of problems locally. Trees fell, power was knocked out to some areas, local flooding, creeks overtopping their banks and overwhelming the capability of the drainage systems, and generally a bad travel day around the mountain. Rainfall totals are listed below for some of the local areas. This was from a record breaking AR that had Pricipital Moisture levels (PWAT) of up to 1.68″ in the San Diego area where it is measured.
..Today, a weak cold front will pass through the area later today. This will bring cold air with rain and snow levels to the 5000′ level by later this afternoon. 0-3″ of snow will be possible for the local area to Big Bear today. This is not an AR fed system so the moisture will be limited. Gusty winds will continue through the day and the NWS has issued a Wind Advisory for the local area.
..Saturday, another cold and weak wave will pass through the area bringing a slight chance for snow showers from the 3000′-4000′ level and above. We will have a partly cloudy day with more gusty winds. Accumulations will run from 0-2″ possible.
..Sunday, temperatures will be cold with highs in the 20′ to low 30s. Snow showers will be likely from 11am-11pm as another weak wave passes through the area. The snow levels will be around the 3000′ level and local accumulations of 1-3″ is possible again. There will not be a lot of moisture with this system mostly just cold and showers.
..Monday and Tuesday, finally a couple of sunny days. Temperatures will be cold with mostly clear skies and gusty winds.
..On the long range outlook, another storm is looking good for around the 21st and another on around the 26-27th with low snow levels. So it look like we will finish out the month with more snow.
..If you wanted a busy Winter, then you got your wish this year! Enjoy! RC

Yesterday’s High and Low temperatures were:
Crestline-49/35*-6.01″St-TTL, Twin Peaks-45/32*-St-TTl-5.86″, Lake Arrowhead-47/33*St-TTL-7.45″R, Running Springs-46/29*-St-TTL-4.03″, Big Bear-49/28-St-TTL-4.60″R*, San Berdo-58/46*St-TTL-4.26″R.

Have a great day, and thanks for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com.
Be sure to check out the website for live webcams from around the area along with live weather conditions and a view of Lake Gregory from my weather station at the South side of the lake.

 

Wednesday, Feb 14, 2019

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TODAY’S LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES:

 


 

TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:

Good Morning. Happy birthday to my brother Ken. Happy Valentines Day to all!
..I’m not sure if we need an Ark or a Big Snow Blower.
..The NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch for our area through this evening. A Wind Advisory is also in effect through Saturday @ 4am for our area.
..Today we will have rain, heavy at times, as a strong AR moves across the SoCal region. Rain rates will approach .75-1.00″ pr/hr at times today. Flooding, debris flow, strong gusty winds, and Fog, will make for an interesting day around the mountain. Rainfall amounts today will run from 4-8″ locally with some upslope areas due to orographic lift could see upwards of 10″ of rain today. A cold Front that is pushing south will arrive here by late this afternoon or tonight. Currently the snow level is running around the 8000′ level but will drop quickly to around the 5500-6000′ level when the cold Front arrives. Rain today will accompanied by a chance for a Thunderstorm this afternoon as the cold air arrives. This is when the snow levels will lower. Big Bear, Green Valley Lake, Running Springs, and Arrowbear could all see snow as the end of this AR system moves out and the cold Front arrives.
..Friday, we will have partly cloudy skies with snow showers likely for most areas. Accumulations of 1-3″ will be possible above the 5000′ level. This is from a weak wave that will pass through during the day.
..Saturday, another weak wave will pass through bringing another chance for snow showers to the area. Cold air will bring daytime highs in the 30’s to low 40s across the area.
..Sunday will be more of the same with another chance for snow showers to around the 3500′ level in the afternoon through Monday morning. Then it looks like a couple of mostly clear days before another system arrives later in the week.
..If you wanted a busy Winter, then you got your wish this year! Enjoy! RC

Yesterday’s High and Low temperatures were:
Crestline-47/45*-2.25″R , Twin Peaks-42/36*, Lake Arrowhead-45/43*-1.54″R, Running Springs-44/42*, Big Bear-47/42-1.04″R*, San Berdo-61/51*-1.22″R.
Rainfall totals as of 5am.

Have a great day, and thanks for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com.
Be sure to check out the website for live webcams from around the area along with live weather conditions and a view of Lake Gregory from my weather station at the South side of the lake.

 

Tuesday, Feb 13, 2019

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TODAY’S LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES:

 


 

TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:

Good Morning.
..The NWS has issued a HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 10PM WEDNESDAY. ALSO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME.
..Winds are picking up this morning as a wet AR fed weather system approaches SoCal. Rain will begin later this morning in the mountain areas spreading to the lower elevations later today.
..Currently the humidity levels are very low, but this will rapidly change in the next few hours as the Tropical moisture feeds into the area saturating the atmosphere. Precipital Moisture (PWAT) is currently @ .51″ but will increase to .96″ by this afternoon, then peak at around 1.35″-1.59″ (a record for this area for this time of year) tomorrow. This is when we will have the heavy rains move through SoCal, from Thursday morning through the Evening then tapering off by late evening.
..The freezing levels will be quite high for most of this system running from 8-10k’ through Thursday afternoon. As the cold air arrives at the back of storm, the snow levels will lower to around the 6000′-6500′ level Thursday night into Friday morning. All of this should clear out by Friday with residual showers and or snow showers Friday. Fog, gusty winds, and rain will make for a wintery weather afternoon today through Thursday night. Heavy rain at times will likely cause debris flows in creeks and on the local roadways so be aware! The ground is pretty much saturated so there will be lots of runoff from the rain as well as extra runoff from snow melt as well.
..Friday will be partly cloudy with a few light showers around as the air drys out. Saturday will be sunny but will not be very warm as we get ready for another cold system to arrive for Sunday and Monday. Snow levels are expected to be from the 4500-5500′ level at that time.
..Then a quick break before the next system arrives around Thursday.
..If you wanted a busy Winter, then you got your wish this year! Enjoy! RC

Yesterday’s High and Low temperatures were:
Crestline-51/45*, Twin Peaks-44/37*, Lake Arrowhead-49/41*, Running Springs-43/38*, Big Bear-50/40*, San Berdo-67/48*.

Have a great day, and thanks for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com.
Be sure to check out the website for live webcams from around the area along with live weather conditions and a view of Lake Gregory from my weather station at the South side of the lake.

 

Tuesday, Feb 12, 2019

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TODAY’S LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES:

 


 

TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:

Good Morning.
Enjoy the break in weather today because it won’t last long.
..Today we will have mostly clear skies with slightly warmer temperatures. Late this afternoon or evening high clouds in advance of our next weather system will begin to cover the sky. This next system will be much warmer with snow levels starting out around the 8000′ level Wednesday night. As this system approaches, clouds will build from the upper levels and fill to the lower levels by Wednesday as is common for Warm Fronts. Cold Fronts usually fill in from the lower levels. This will be a very wet storm with rainfall amounts running from 4-8″ locally. Due to the strong SW flow, orographic lift will bring extra rain to the upslope areas which could receive up to 10″ of rain by Friday morning. Precipital Water levels may be the wettest ever recorded in this part of the country for this time of year from this storm. Downslope heavy runoff and low level flooding will be a good possibility.
..By Friday morning, the snow levels will begin to lower to the 6000′ level in some areas so we may see a little snow by Friday morning toward the Big Bear or higher areas. Along with the rain possibly heavy at times, strong gusty winds can be expected so put away those umbrellas from all the sun we have had the last two days. Due to all of the recent rains, most of the ground is saturated and the creeks have water flowing. So this rain event will bring heavy runoff in all areas. Additionally, snow melt will add to the runoff locally. Use caution around any water standing or running.
…For the weekend, partly cloudy skies with showers look like it will be the forecast as the Low to our North that is driving this first system, passes through SoCal. Long range, we may get a break after the weekend from the storm track for a few days. RC

Yesterday’s High and Low temperatures were:
Crestline-43/22*, Twin Peaks-38/30*, Lake Arrowhead-45/35*, Running Springs-34/29*, Big Bear-45/09*, San Berdo-62/36*.

Have a great day, and thanks for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com.
Be sure to check out the website for live webcams from around the area along with live weather conditions and a view of Lake Gregory from my weather station at the South side of the lake.