Sunday, February 18, 2018

 

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TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:



Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains:
WEATHER UPDATE 5:30pm:
Everything looks on track for this system. Clouds are beginning to move into the area and fog will develop along the Rim soon. The coldest air will arrive between 1am and 5am Monday morning. We will most likely see rain and or sleet to begin with below the 6000′ level around midnight to 1am. Above the 6000′ level, will most likely start off with wet snow. As the storm moves into the area, colder air will move in and the freezing level will lower to the 3500′ level by morning. Snow accumulations are still low with 1-3″ expected across the area. The greatest amounts will be at the higher elevations.

Good Morning.
Well, it looks like we will finally get a little taste of Winter late tonight, and tomorrow. A VERY COLD ARTIC air mass is on it’s way toward SoCal, and will arrive here early, Monday morning. Along with the very cold air, the weak tail end of a long wave trough, stretching from the Great Lakes all the way to SoCal will arrive by tonight. All of this will add up to clouds and fog developing around 10pm tonight, leading to rain below the 6000′ level to begin with, then the snow level rapidly dropping after midnight to the 4000′-4500′ level by 4am Monday. There will be a brief period of convective activity Monday morning, so I expect scattered snow showers with possible Hail or soft snow pellets, to continue through the morning and early afternoon hours Monday. Temperatures will remain very cold through Tuesday for all areas above the 4500′ level. If you are planning on driving anywhere on the mountain tomorrow, Winter Weather driving conditions will be likely. Which means, carry chains as there will likely be chain requirements above the 4000′ level through Monday, or so. Due to the very cold sustained temperatures locally, ICY ROADS and BLACK ICE will be a problem. There is a chance that snow showers may fall as low as the 3000′ level so be prepared for this. As of this mornings forecast models, we can expect to receive around .15″ of moisture from this system. That equates to from 1-3″ of Snow locally, using a 10-1 snow to moisture ratio typical for this cold of an air mass. Gusty SW to SE winds will develop today with wind gusts from 10-30mph. Temperatures will peak today at around the 45-50* mark, then drop rapidly as the cold air arrives later this evening. Overnight lows are expected to be from, 25* in the Crestline, and Lake Arrowhead areas, to 8-15* in the Green Valley and Big Bear Lake areas with even colder temps for Monday night. Highs for the day Monday will be from the mid 20s to low 30s for all mountain areas. Tuesday and Wednesday, we will warm up some but another chance for rain/snow will arrive later in the work week. So don’t put those shovels away just yet.
On another note, the latest long range outlook for SoCal is in favor of the area of High Pressure to our West, moving out at the end of February. So if this does happen, we may see at least a few good storms during March. We’ll see.
Today’s Temperatures:
Crestline and Lake Arrowhead areas: 48-55*/25-32*-Inc/Clds
Running Springs & Green Valley Lake: 42-47*/20-26*-Inc/Clds
Big Bear: 45*50/10-18*-Inc/Clds
San Bernardino: 65-70*/40-45*-Inc/Clds
That’s it for now, have a good day, and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Saturday, February 17, 2018

 

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TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:



Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains:
Good Morning.
Today will be the last warm day of the next five to seven. A Polar Low will move into the SoCal area bringing a chance for light snow to the 3500′ level Sunday night, and Monday. Behind the low is a very cold air mass associated with High pressure that will sit over the Great Basin. So enjoy the warm day today. Temperatures will be very cold in areas like Big Bear where the high for Monday is expected to be in the low to mid 20s, with overnight lows in the lower, single digits. Brrrr! A quick moving trough of low pressure will begin to affect our weather here later today as the wind changes to the South West. The Marine layer will deepen tomorrow and we could see ridge fog by tomorrow morning and certainly by the afternoon. The main area of vorticity from this system will pass through SoCal around 4am Monday, this is when we will have the best chance for snowfall locally. the moisture from this system is around .10″ so snow fall amounts will be very light. However, due to the very cold air, we could see up to ~1″ of snow in some areas. Using a 12-1 snow to moisture ratio, due to the very cold air mass. We typically have a 3-1 ratio of snow to moisture locally. The freezing level will lower to the 3550-4000 foot level early Monday, so if you are driving anywhere, there will be a good chance to see chain requirements on all mountain roads. Monday after the system passes through in the morning hours, we will quickly clear out allowing temperatures to drop further. DON”T forget about your pets! This will be very dangerous temperatures for them and they must come indoors out of the cold. Temperatures for Monday will likely not, make it above freezing for the mountain areas above the 4000′ level. Tuesday, we will begin to slowly warm up but temps will remain cold through the work week. There will be a couple of weak waves pass through during the work week ahead but at this time, it doesn’t look like anything significant. We will continue to see the winds seesaw back and forth from the NE to the SW as these fronts pass through the area.
Today’s Temperatures:
Crestline and Lake Arrowhead areas: 55-60*/ 30-36*-clr/skies
Running Springs & Green Valley Lake: 46-52*/24-30*-Clr/Skies
Big Bear: 48-54*/20-27*-Hi/ Clds
San Bernardino: 70-75*/45-50*-Hi/Clds
That’s it for now, have a good day, and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Friday, February 16, 2018

 

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TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:


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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains:
Good Morning.
Today we are back to Santa Ana Winds, again. I feel like a broken record. Surface pressure is running about 6mbs higher in the Great Basin this morning than at San Diego. This gradient will likely increase as the day progresses today, so we can expect gusty NE winds through the day. Currently, Playground Drive W/St has wind gusts to 25mph, and Waterman Canyon is at 12-25mph. So expect to have gusty winds especially along the local HWYS today. Along with the gusty winds today, we will have high clouds streaming up from the South for most of the day. Temperatures today will run from 54-60* between 4500′ and 6000′. Above that, temperatures will run from 47-54*.
Tomorrow, we will see another wind change from the NE, to the SW, as another weak front slides South across the Interior West and begins to affect our area by the3 afternoon. This system will arrive here late Sunday lasting through Monday. As it moves across the area, we will see a chance for rain below the 4500′ level, and snow showers above that. This is a very cold, “Continental” Polar system, so there will be very limited moisture available for snow, and or rain, for our area. Snow estimates are from 0-2″ at best. PWAT and or Tropical moisture levels are very low with this system. Temperatures will be very cold with this system with daytime highs expected to be in the 30s for most areas above 5000′. Fog and clouds will begin to develop Sunday late afternoon lasting through Monday along with the chance for rain or snow. So plan extra time if you are driving during that period. Late Monday, the skies will clear but temperatures will remain cold.
Today’s Temperatures:
Crestline and Lake Arrowhead areas: 55-60*/ 32-38*-Hi/Clds
Running Springs & Green Valley Lake: 48-52*/26-32*-Hi/Clds
Big Bear: 48-54*/22-27*-Hi/ Clds
San Bernardino: 68-72*/45-50*-Hi/Clds
That’s it for now, have a good day, and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Thursday, February 15, 2018

 

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TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:



Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains:
Good Morning.
Later today we will begin to clear out after a weak trough passes through this morning. Currently, we have clouds and some fog around the area. We will return to offshore flow later today with gusty NE winds tonight and Friday especially below the passes and in the Canyons. Another weak trough will begin to affect our area Sunday with onshore flow returning across the area. Monday we will see a chance for drizzle as the Marine layer deepens possibly to the 5500′ level. Temperatures will remain cool through the period. The longer range forecast shows a chance for another weak system arriving here Wednesday.
Today’s Temperatures:
Crestline and Lake Arrowhead areas: 48-55*/ 28-35*-P/Cldy
Running Springs & Green Valley Lake: 41-47*/24-30*-P/Cldy
Big Bear: 42-49*/20-25*-P/cldy
San Bernardino: 68-72*/44-50*-P/Cldy
That’s it for now, have a good day, and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

 

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TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:



Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains:
Good Morning.
Happy Valentines Day and, HAPPY BIRTHDAY to my Brother Ken.
Currently, as of 5am, there are scattered showers across parts of SoCal.
Well, the hope for a good rain has all but gone out the window again. The Cut Off Low that I was in hopes would bring a good rain for the local area has failed to do so. Today, the Low will rejoin the Jet Stream and move from over the Pacific, East, to Arizona and beyond. As the Low moves East today, there will be a chance for showers across the southern parts of California including our area. But the dynamics at this point are weak so I don’t expect to see much if anything today. Since the system has been sitting over the warm ocean to our South, the freezing level has risen so any snow that may fall will be at the higher elevations only, above 6500′-7000′. We will have partly cloudy skies today as the system passes through. Behind the departing low, NE winds will again kick in with chilly air from the Great Basin keeping things cool. The only benefit from all of this is Big Bear will likely be making lots of snow for their Resort. And, Shaun White took a Gold Medal last night in an awesome performance on the Half Pipe!!!
Thursday and Friday, temperatures will begin to warm up during the day, but cold nights will still be in the Forecast. The weekend will be pretty nice with clear skies and good weather. Monday, another weak system will pass through bringing another chance for a shower. I’m not holding my breath though. This morning we have a weak offshore flow across the region. Tonopah has a surface pressure of 1022.2, Daggett-1019.9, and San Diego is at 1019.8. As the low moves through, San Diego’s pressure will lower, and Tonopah will see an increase as the pressure builds in the Great Basin. This will be the set up for an offshore flow and clearing weather as the low passes.
Today’s Temperatures:
Crestline and Lake Arrowhead areas: 44-50*/ 34-40*- 20%
Running Springs and Green Valley Lake: 40-45* / 23-28*- 20%
Big Bear: 41-47* / 20-25* 25%
San Bernardino: 63-68* / 43-50* 20%
That’s it for now, have a good day, and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

 

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TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:



Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains:
Good Morning.
Yesterday across the area we had light rain, snow, and lots of Fog. Today we will see scattered showers including snow showers above the 4500′ level. Looking at the Radar this morning, there is a band of fairly heavy showers moving up from the south heading toward Long Beach at this time. Other than those showers, things look pretty quiet. The area of Low pressure that brought unsettled weather yesterday and overnight, has moved offshore as expected this morning. This will keep us under partly cloudy skies today with scattered showers likely. Temperatures are below freezing in all areas this morning so if you are driving, the roads will be ICY, as overnight rain/snow fell across the area. So plan extra time to get to your destination. Chain Requirements are up this morning on parts of HWYS: 18,330,189,38, and 173 (As of 5am.). 4WD Vehicles may be OK in some areas without chains. County and State vehicles will be out laying down cinders so use caution around those vehicles.
For today, temperatures will remain cold with highs expected to be in the 30s to low 40s for all areas today. Patchy Fog today along with light and variable winds will add an extra chill to the air. As it looks now, I don’t expect to see much rain/snow today as the system is now offshore. The circulation of the Low may draw Tropical moisture up from the south later today through Wednesday. If this does happen, the Eastern parts of SoCal, and Arizona, will have a good chance for some measureable rain. For our area, as it looks now, we can expect only scattered showers.
All of this will move East Thursday, and a slow warm up will begin for a couple days.
Today’s Temperatures:
Crestline and Lake Arrowhead areas: 40-46*/ 28-34*
Running Springs and Green Valley Lake: 36-42* / 20-25*
Big Bear: 36-40* / 15-25*
That’s it for now, have a good day, and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Monday, February 12, 2018

 

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TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:



Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains:
Good Morning.
As expected, strong gusty winds, with Fog along the Rim has developed overnight making for a wet and slow commute this morning. As the trough moved closer to our area last night, strong gusty winds from 10-55mph were reported across the local area. This morning the winds are still very gusty. Heaps Peak has winds as of 5am at 39-G59mph. If you are driving on the local HWYs, watch for rocks and debris on the roadway. Today will be an interesting day, Rain, and Snow in some areas, along with Foggy conditions will be possible through much of the day. Cold Polar Air has pushed South to SoCal along with a Cut Off Low. The Cut Off Low is expected to push offshore and remain there for the next few days. This will give us a chance for scattered Rain, and or Snow showers today through Wednesday as bands of showers push onshore. Temperatures will remain very cool with highs expected to be in the 30s to low 40s for the daytime highs locally.
As it looks this morning, most of the moisture will move into the Arizona Desert area however, if the Low moves slightly, we could get a good rain from this. So this will be worth watching over the next couple of days. Currently, precipitation amounts are estimated to remain under .50″ for our area through the period. Along the Rim, Orographic lift may enhance those figures somewhat by Wednesday. All of this will move out of the area Thursday and we will return to Offshore flow again.
Today’s Temperatures:
Crestline and Lake Arrowhead areas: 36-40* / 23-28*
Running Springs and Green Valley Lake: 30-36* / 19-25*
Big Bear: 35-39* / 12-20*
That’s it for now, have a good day, and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Sunday, February 11, 2018

 

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TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:



Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains:
Good Morning.
This morning as of 11:00am, the offshore flow has relaxed from it’s peak at around 2:00-3:00am, when wind gusts across the area were running from 10-43mph. Heaps Peak had the highest gust of 43mph at 2:45am. Today we will have mostly clear skies throughout the day with decreasing NE winds, and increasing clouds tonight. Tomorrow morning Fog and low clouds will likely affect the morning commute so plan a little extra time for that. Temperatures across all of the mountain locations will be much colder for the next couple of days as a POLAR air mass moves into the Great Basin. Cold air advection will take place as an area of Low pressure slides south along the Western side of California, drawing the cold air with it. As this area of low pressure slides south, it will separate from the Jet Stream becoming a Cut Off Low ending up somewhere off of the SoCal Coast. Depending on where this Low actually ends up will have everything to do with how much rain, and or snow, we end up with. Winds from the South West will increase later this evening becoming gusty as the air mass over SoCal transforms to a Wetter, and more Winter like pattern for the next several days. As it looks this morning, we will have a chance for rain/snow tomorrow for most of the day as temperatures across the mountain will be in the 30s. The snow level may fall as low as the 4500′ level at times Monday and Tuesday. Then the air mass will become warmer as the low sits offshore and draws warmer air from the south. The forecasted precipitation amounts for our area will run from .50-1.00″ which could bring measureable snow to the local ski resorts by Tuesday. Most areas below the 5500′ level can expect to see rain with occasional snow flurries with little to no snow accumulation. This mornings CAPE, PWAT, and Lapse Rates etc, indicate that there will be little chance for heavy rain, or Thunderstorm activity through Wednesday. Depending on where this Cut Off Low ends up, Thursday could be wet, or the moisture could head into the Arizona Desert. That will be a time frame to watch as things could get interesting with a little adjustment of where the Low actually ends up.
Today’s Temperatures:
Crestline and Lake Arrowhead areas: 52-58*/ 27-35*
Running Springs and Green Valley Lake: 48-54*/ 24-32*
Big Bear: 49-55*/ 20-25*
That’s it for now, have a good day, and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Saturday, February 10, 2018

 

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TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:



Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains:
Good Morning.
This morning, we have an onshore flow across most of SoCal. A fairly thick Marine layer has moved into the Valley and is currently up to the 2000′ level. This is due to a Coastal Eddy, that will dissipate later today, but may redevelop after the NE wind event passes. So if you are driving down the hill this morning, you will run into fog as you approach the Valley. Later today, a weak front will pass to our East. This will bring high level clouds across the SoCal region during the morning hours. Behind the departing front, High pressure will build quickly in the Great Basin. This will bring a change in wind direction to the SoCal area beginning late this afternoon. Gusty North East winds will develop from 15-40mph with higher gusts in the wind prone areas. This has prompted a RED FLAG WARNING for the SoCal region from 10pm today through 1pm Sunday. Sunday afternoon, another wind change will take place as another system works it’s way through the area. More gusty winds can be expected, this time from the South West. This system will bring a big change to our weather locally. Cold air advection from the Great Basin will bring local temperatures down 20-30* for the daytime highs by Monday, with the overnight lows dropping into the teens in the areas above the 6500′ level, and the mid to upper 20s for all other areas above the 4500′ level. Clouds and fog will increase across the area with a chance for a rain shower beginning Monday. This system will cut off from the Jet Stream Flow and remain just south of SoCal through Thursday. Initially, this will be a very cold Polar system, so expect to see cold temperatures Monday and Tuesday with a chance for light snow showers in some of the local areas. Then, as it sits over the Pacific Ocean to our south, it will entrain Tropical Moisture becoming warmer and wetter. Wednesday or Thursday of next week, this storm is expected to begin to move over SoCal which will be our best chance for measureable rain. This is a very complex weather scenario that will develop over the next five to seven days, so I expect to see many changes as we embark on this coming 7 Day period. These systems can produce a variety of weather including Water Spouts, Thunderstorms, Heavy rain, and more. Or may just move on with little to no affect. So keep an eye on what is happening as things can change rapidly.
Temperatures today:
Crestline and Lake Arrowhead: 55-62*/29-36*
Running Springs and Green Valley Lake: 55-60*/ 27-35*
Big Bear: 55-62*/15-25*
That’s it for now, have a good day, and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Friday, February 09, 2018

 

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TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:



Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains:
Good Morning.
The next seven days will be filled with a variety of weather conditions across the Mountains, and, the Southern California area. Today, we have a weak offshore flow at the upper elevations. The surface pressure at Tonopah this morning is at 1021.1mbs, Daggett is at 1017.0mbs. So the surface flow is to the South West across the Desert areas. The surface pressure at San Diego this morning is at 1017.0mbs, so the flow from the Coast to the mountains is pretty much neutral. There is some fog this morning along the Coast and Inland a few miles but this will clear later this morning. A shortwave trough will slide down the interior of California Saturday morning, this will increase the onshore flow beginning later this afternoon through Saturday afternoon. As the trough passes Saturday, a fairly strong offshore Santa Ana Wind event will set up for Saturday night through Sunday morning. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH will be in effect for that time frame.
This will rapidly change to an onshore flow late Sunday as a secondary front will begin to affect the local area. This secondary Polar Low will pass over SoCal Monday, then become a cut off low just West of SoCal. From Monday through Thursday, this Cut Off Low is expected to remain offshore harvesting moisture from the Tropical Pacific. Initially, this will be a cold core low that will bring a big change in the local temperatures by Monday. Showers and possibly a few snow showers will be in the Forecast for Monday night, and Tuesday morning. Then temperatures should warm up as the Tropical moisture becomes entrained in the circulation of the Low. Showers possibly heavy at times will be possible for Tuesday through Thursday for the local area. This will be a typical Cut Off Low scenario for SoCal, so there will many changes in the days ahead, but this is how it looks this morning. The Hudson Bay Polar Vortex that has acted as a blocking mechanism to the storm track for the West Coast for much of this Winter is finally breaking down and moving out. If it doesn’t rebuild, we should be open to the normal storms that would bring rain, and snow to the local area for the rest of the Winter.
That’s it for now, have a good day, and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC
Temperatures today: