Wednesday, February 28, 2018

 

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TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:



Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains:
Good Morning.
Yesterday brought a nice, and much needed snow to the mountains. Crestline received from 3-5″, Arrowhead 3-5″, Big Bear 5-8″ as did Running Springs and Green Valley Lake. By mid day yesterday, most of the storm had moved on except Running Springs, GVL, and Big Bear, where afternoon snow showers lingered. The area of low pressure that brought the Winter Weather to our area has moved on this morning. Today, and Thursday morning, a weak Ridge of High pressure will develop over SoCal. This will briefly bring mostly clear skies with warmer temperatures to the area. This mornings surface pressure is weakly onshore, running at 2-4mbs from San Diego to Tonopah. Tomorrow morning, we may see Ridge fog as the Marine layer deepens overnight with the onshore flow. Thursday afternoon or early evening, we will have increasing clouds from the next system that will affect our area. This next system as we discussed last week, will have a Tropical feed from around the Hawaiian Islands to begin with. Therefore, this will be a warmer system for our area. To our North, where the actual center of the Low will be, they will see potentially lots of snow in the Sierras. Here on the Southern end, we will see warmer temperatures with a snow level for this storm at or about the 6000′ level to begin with. Then Saturday as the system winds down and the cold air arrives, the snow levels will lower to the 4500-5000′ level. Sunday through Wednesday, temperatures will begin to warm as High pressure sets in for a few days. Currently, the moisture estimates are for this next system are, .75-1.25″ for the local area. Some of this will come as rain for the lower elevations, and some areas will have snow. For the Running Springs, GVL, and BB areas, 3-5″ of additional snow will be likely. Below that, 1-3″ looks likely at this time at the 4500-5500′ level by the end of the storm. Tomorrow’s forecast will have a better handle on those amounts.
Temperatures around the area for Today:
Crestline and Lake Arrowhead: 42-47*/26-34*
Running Springs, GVL, and Big Bear: 35-40*/15-24*
San Bernardino: 58-64*/40-45*
That’s it for now, have a good day, and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Tuesday, February 27, 2018

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains:
Good Morning.

2am precip


Snow continues to fall here at my location at Lake Gregory. So far it looks like around 4+”s as of 4am. Traveling around the mountain today will be challenging to say the least. If you don’t need to go out, stay home, and enjoy the beautiful winter weather.
Snow showers have tapered off as of 5am. The main band of snow has passed through, so for the rest of today we will have convective showers as the center of the low passes through. We should see a break in the snow for a few hours this morning from 6am to around 10am before things start up again with convective showers.
A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR OUR AREA THROUGH 10PM TONIGHT.
A 540dm area of low pressure will pass across the local area today. The center will be over our area from 10am through 4pm. This is when we will see more showers develop locally with snow flurries to the 3000′ level. Today’s accumulations will be from 1-3 additional inches below the 6000′ level, and possibly greater amounts at the higher elevations. Clouds, and fog will gradually clear out by tonight as the low moves East. Temperatures will remain cold with highs today from the mid 20s in the Big Bear and surrounding areas, to the low 30s for Crestline and Lake Arrowhead. Chain requirements will be in place today for all mountain roads. Check the “Road Conditions” page for details. As the low passes, it will weaken and by 10pm will be around 552dm, therefore the showers will dissipate as well. Wednesday, a weak ridge will develop across SoCal with warmer temperatures warming to the upper 30s to low 40s. Mostly clear skies will be short lived as another system will arrive Thursday afternoon or evening. This system will likely have weak AR enhancement with PWAT levels at around .80″. This will be warmer than the last several storms we have seen. The snow levels will be around 6000′ to begin with, then lower Friday morning as the core arrives to around 4500-5000′. This should be the last system for our area through the middle part of next week.
Temperatures for Today:
Crestline and Lake Arrowhead: 30-35*/20-28*
Running Springs, GVL, and Big Bear: 25-28*/12-18*
San Bernardino: 50-55*/35-42*
That’s it for now, have a good day, and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Monday, February 26, 2018

 

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TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:



2am precip

7:30PM STORM UPDATE. A WINTER STORM WILL ARRIVE HERE TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE STORM WILL PASS THROUGH BY 5AM TUESDAY. EXPECT FROM 2-6 INCHES IN THE CRESTLINE AND ARROWHEAD AREAS BY MORNING. BIG BEAR, RUNNING SPRINGS AND GREEN VALLEY LAKE WILL SEE FROM 4-8′ OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF BREAK LOOKS LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING BETWEEN 5AM AND 10AM. THEN THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SIT OVER THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE FOR T/STORMS AND ANOTHER 2-4″ OF SNOW DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT BY 10PM TUESDAY.

Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains:
Good Morning.
The NWS has issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR AREA FROM; 7PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10PM TUESDAY.
This morning the winds have turned, and are now from the SE. This is an indicator of what’s to come. Another Cold Core system is making it’s way south toward SoCal today and will arrive here
later this evening. This storm will bring 3-5″ of snow to the Crestline and Lake Arrowhead areas, and from 5-8″ of snow to the Running Springs, GVL, and Big Bear areas by tomorrow afternoon.
Fog and clouds will arrive here by 6pm tonight making for poor driving conditions beginning this evening. Snow levels will again be quite low with snow accumulations at the 3500′ level possible of 1-2 inches. Winter Driving conditions can be expected locally with chain controls on all of the local HWYs to be expected. Plan extra time for your travels for the next five days.
This storm has more moisture associated with it over the last couple we have seen here. The Moisture content is running around .50-.80″. Given the cold temperatures of this storm, we will be looking at approximately a 10-1″ snow ratio. However, there will be unstable air in the mix, so occasional heavy snow, and or snow pellets, could ramp up the snow totals locally as possible Thunder Storms may develop over the area late tonight and Tuesday as the core passes over SoCal. Most of the system will be clearing out by Tuesday night. Wednesday a Ridge will build over the area, but don’t get to comfortable. Late Thursday night, another storm will arrive here bringing more rain/snow to the area. This system will move out by Saturday morning. Then it looks like we will get a brief break and a warming trend for the next few days.
Temperatures for Today:
Crestline and Lake Arrowhead: 43-48*/20-30*
Running Springs, GVL, and Big Bear: 38-44*/12-18*
San Bernardino: 65-68*/39-44*
That’s it for now, have a good day, and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Sunday, February 25, 2018

 

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TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:



Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains:
Good Morning.
Looks like another nice day today for the mountains. North East winds were pretty strong overnight with gusts from 20-35mph in the wind prone areas. The NE winds will taper off this morning becoming Southerly by late this afternoon, in advance of the next, in a possible a series of systems for SoCal. Temperatures today will run from the upper 40s to low 50s for the Crestline and Lake Arrowhead areas. Big Bear and the surrounding areas there will see temperatures from 39-45* today. All areas will have clear skies today with variable, and sometimes gusty, winds. This mornings surface pressure is running slightly offshore with Tonopah at 1026.2 and San Diego at 1022.9. This will begin to change later today as the High in the Great Basin moves out and is replaced by our next weather system to affect the SoCal mountains.
Monday, we will begin the transition from clear skies in the morning, to increasing clouds, and rain/snow by late tomorrow night. This system will be much like the last one as it too will be fairly dry. The moisture from this storm is expected to be around .50″-.70″s, locally. This will also be a very cold Polar Storm, so the freezing levels will again be down to the 3500′ level at times. Snowfall accumulations are expected to be from 1-3″ below the 4500″ level, 2-6″ to the 6500′ level with up to 6-8″s at the highest elevations. The moisture plume from this storm will be much deeper than the last storm, with the saturation level reaching to the 20k” level Tuesday. There is also better storm dynamics with this system with a chance for T-Storms Tuesday when the K-value, Lapse rates, and CAPE, will all reach the lower threshold for T/S development locally. This is consistent with the passing of the center of the Low. At that time is when we could see heavy snowfall, and or snow pellets, so accumulations could rapidly change if T/Storms do develop. This mornings 500mb Vorticity plot also showed the Tropical Jet veering North Tuesday. This, will be worth watching, as that could really change the dynamics of this storm with a little variance. Tomorrow’s morning Forecast will include all of the details.
Wednesday, we will be in a clearing period between systems, as another wetter and warmer storm is likely for Thursday through Saturday morning. As mentioned in yesterday’s blog, the area of High pressure has relocated to a more favorable position for the storm track to flow through SoCal. Hopefully this will remain this way through March.RC
Temperatures for Today:
Crestline and Lake Arrowhead: 49-55*/30-35*
Running Springs, GVL, and Big Bear: 40-47*/15-25*
San Bernardino: 65-70*/42-48*
That’s it for now, have a good day, and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Saturday, February 24, 2018

 

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TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:



Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains:
Good Morning.
Yesterday was a beautiful Mountain day, complete with snow, and Sun. It doesn’t get much better than that. Big Bear had 2-4″ as did Running Springs, and GVL. Crestline and Lake Arrowhead received from 1-3″. This morning, the surface pressure gradient from the Great Basin to the SoCal Coastal area is running weakly offshore. The winds will alternate from onshore, and back to offshore, as a series of weak areas of High and low pressure features move through the area. Overall, this will bring a slight warming trend to the area with temperatures expected to peak Sunday, in the mid to upper 40s. Clear skies and cool temperatures will prevail for the weekend. Generally, cold air advection from the Great Basin will keep the local temperatures on the cool side through the next five days. Sunday evening, we will begin to feel the affects of our next weather system as it approaches from the Interior North. This system will again be a Cold Core Continental based storm, sliding South along the West Coast arriving here Monday afternoon or evening. Snow levels will again be quite low running from 3500-4000′. The available moisture will be around .25-.33″ so I expect to see from 2-5″ of accumulation by Tuesday morning, depending on your location. However, there is a fly in the ointment, Monday night around 10pm through Tuesday morning 9am, there will be a possibility of some convective activity as the center of the Low passes directly over our area. So T-Storms could bring brief periods of heavy snow and or snow pellets, which can add up quickly raising the total accumulations.
On the longer range outlook, it looks as though March will be a wet, or white, month. The long range outlook shows another system arriving here Thursday/Friday. This system will be a little warmer as the moisture originates from Hawaii this time. It will mix with cold air as it arrives, but the Snow levels look to be around 5500-6200′ on this one. Looking further ahead into the crystal ball region of forecasting, It looks like a brief break from the systems here as the area of High Pressure that has been to our West, transitions North, and allows more typical Pacific storms to flow into the region. So as it looks now, we will indeed have a wet March. RC
Temperatures for Today:
Crestline and Lake Arrowhead: 38-44*/22-28*
Running Springs, GVL, and Big Bear: 38-42*/15-25*
San Bernardino: 61-65*/39-45*
That’s it for now, have a good day, and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Friday, February 23, 2018

 

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TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:



Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains:
Good Morning.
Currently, as of 4:30am, snow showers are falling across the area above the 4500′ level. Rain is falling below that level in Waterman Canyon and San Bernardino. These showers will last into the early morning around 8-9am, before the trough moves out and clearing begins. Light and variable winds can be expected today as the strong winds never really developed yesterday. As we clear out today, North East winds will develop becoming gusty later this morning behind the departing Front.
Snow accumulations have been light with a dusting in some areas to a couple of inches in others. Chain requirements will be likely this morning for the local HWYS, so plan a little extra time for that. HWY conditions and chain requirements can be checked on the “ROAD CONDITIONS” page on the website menu. As this system moves out of the area today, clear and a little warmer weather will be the forecast for the next three days as a Ridge of High pressure will temporarily set up over SoCal. Temperatures will be warmer but still quite cool as daytime highs will be in the upper 30s today, to the mid to upper 40s by Sunday.
The next system will arrive on Tuesday as it looks this morning. This should be a wetter system as it will have a more offshore trajectory as it drops South along the West Coast before moving over SoCal. The snow levels will likely be a little higher with this next system as well. Another system is possible for next weekend as well. The blocking area of High pressure to our West is slowly breaking down. Therefore allowing these Pacific systems to finally drop south along the Coast, bringing much needed rain to the drought stricken West Coast of California. Hopefully this trend will continue. RC
Temperatures for Today:
Crestline and Lake Arrowhead: 32-36*/20-26*
Running Springs, GVL, and Big Bear: 26-32*/12-20*
San Bernardino: 55-59*/35-40*
That’s it for now, have a good day, and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Thursday, February 22, 2018

 

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TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:



Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains:
Good Morning.
This morning the surface pressure at Tonopah is at 1017.4mbs, and at San Diego 1023.2. This will bring gusty SW winds to the area today becoming stronger as the days wears on. A Wind Advisory will go into effect at 10am this morning for the local area and be in force through Friday at 10am for gusty SW winds at 10-40mph. The Pressure gradient will peak at 12-14mbs Friday, then, as a Ridge of High pressure fills in behind the departing trough, then the winds will turn to the North East, becoming gusty again, from 10-30mph.
Today, a deepening trough, of Low pressure will slide down the interior of California. This is another cold, Continental based system that will have very limited moisture. However, we can expect to see snow showers beginning later this morning and lasting on and off through Friday morning, when the front actually passes. At this time, it looks like we could see from a dusting, to a couple of inches in some areas, from this system. Friday morning, we will clear out paving the way for a nice weekend of cold temperatures and mostly clear skies. Behind the departing storm, North East winds will develop ending Friday night. Saturday, and Sunday should be good. Then on Monday, another system will arrive here late in the day bringing another chance for snow through Tuesday. At this time, it looks like next week will be filled with several systems from the North bringing rain, and snow to SoCal. This is all due to a Long Wave Trough over the Interior West. These weak systems are slowly eroding away the area of High Pressure over the Pacific Ocean, that has been acting as a block to the Winter storms for SoCal. By next week, we should begin to see wetter systems that will have a trajectory further West over the Pacific, where they can pick up moisture before making landfall in SoCal. So prepare for a wet and snowy week next week for the local area. Winter has finally arrived to SoCal.
Temperatures for:
Crestline and LK Arrowhead: 35-40*/24-32*
Running Springs, GVL, and Big Bear: 28-34*/10-20*
San Bernardino: 58-64*/ 38-44*
That’s it for now, have a good day, and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Wednesday, February 21, 2018

 

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TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:



Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains:
Good Morning.
Winter has finally arrived to SoCal.
Today, we will have high clouds from time to time as a weak wave moves through the area. There will be a chance for snow flurries at times today as well. Temperatures will remain very cool with highs expected to be in the 30s and try to make it to the 40* mark. We are currently in a what’s called a long wave trough pattern. That means we will see several waves or weak systems pass through the SoCal region for up to ten days, or more, as they move around the Western periphery of the long wave trough. So we will have chances for rain/snow flurries
as they move through. The outlook as of this morning is for a weak wave to pass today with slight chances for snow flurries locally. Then for tomorrow and Friday, a more dynamic system will pass through with better chances for measureable snow. Possibly up to three inches, or more, in some of the local areas. Thursday we will have strong and gusty winds as the main front moves through. Friday we will have clearing skies with cold temps continuing through the weekend. Another weak wave will pass through Saturday night with little or no moisture. Monday and Tuesday, it looks like we will have more snow across the area and so on through the work week. There are at this time a couple of systems that look like they will be much stronger in line for next week as it looks this morning, so be prepared for Winter weather for the long haul. Last night as I was looking at the long range forecasts, and reading a couple blogs from two of my favorite climatologists, they are in favor of early March being very wet, or white, for the California Mountains, North and South. So if they are correct, this could be a mini March miracle for the first half of the month, at least. The area of High pressure that has blocked all of the storms that would normally move through SoCal, has relocated a little further West, allowing the jet stream to bring these weak systems through the area. As long as the High stays where it is, we should be in good position for getting rain/snow in the days ahead.
Temperatures for:
Crestline and LK Arrowhead: 36-42*/22-28*
Running Springs, GVL, and Big Bear: 26-30*/10-20*
That’s it for now, have a good day, and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Tuesday, February 20, 2018

 

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TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:



Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains:
Good Morning.
Yesterday’s storm brought around 1-2″ of snow to the local area.
Today will continue to have cold temperatures across the mountain as a Cold long wave trough drives Artic air all the way to the West Coast. This looks like the pattern we will have for the next week or so. Cold temperatures with several short waves passing through the area from the North, will keep us in a Winter type pattern. The High pressure area that has been blocking most of California from getting rain has finally broken down. This will open the path for the Jet Stream to bring Winter Storms to the West Coast, and SoCal. The current forecast models show several systems for our area over the next week. Yesterday’s storm was the first of several to come. Today we will have a NE flow across the area that will turn too the SW later this afternoon as another weak wave passes through the area tomorrow afternoon. This will bring a slight chance for a snow shower or flurries tomorrow. Then a better organized trough will arrive Thursday afternoon. Clouds will develop Thursday afternoon with fog along the Rim with bringing another chance for snow through Friday morning. This system should have better moisture than the last one so we could see from 1-3″ below the 6000′ level and possibly 3-6″ above 6000′. It is still a little early to be sure of snowfall amounts for Fridays system at this time, but I would prepare for those amounts. Snow showers will be possible to the 4000′ level through the period as cold temperatures will remain in place across the mountain for the next 5-7 days. On the long range outlook, it looks like we will see stronger systems arriving here at the end of the month into the first week of March. At this time, all of these systems look cold enough to bring snow to the local area. So if you like cold weather, here you go.
This morning, gusty NE winds are blowing on the font side of the hill. Waterman canyon has NE winds from 10-25mph as of 5am. All area are clear of fog or clouds this morning however, be careful as BLACK ICE and or ICY spots from run off of yesterday’s snow will be on the roads this morning. County and State crews will be spreading cinders today on local roads so use caution around those vehicles.

Today’s Temperatures:
Crestline and Lake Arrowhead areas: 35-40*/20-25*
Running Springs & Green Valley Lake: 33-37*/ 12-20*
Big Bear: 30-37*/05-15*
San Bernardino: 55-60*/35-40*
That’s it for now, have a good day, and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Monday, February 19, 2018

 

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TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:



Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains:
Good Morning. Snowing pretty good here in Crestline @ 6:am.
So far this morning, there has been light rain and snow reported across the Crestline (.02), and Lake Arrowhead areas. Nothing reported in the Running Springs areas so far. Here across SoCal, as has been the case all Winter, we are on the dry, bottom end, of this system. So we can expect to see very little rain/snow other than a band or two of scattered showers lingering today, from what it shows on the SAT/PIC. This is typical for a Continental based Artic system. We still have a Winter Weather Advisory in place through this evening. Due to the light rain/snow in some areas, watch for icy spots on the local roads and black ice. Temperatures will remain well below normal and especially below what we have had for the last month. High temperatures will be hard pressed to get out of the 30s today and Tuesday. Wednesday will be warmer, but two more short waves will come through Thursday and Friday with another chance for snow flurries. There is some hope on the Horizon though, the long range models are in agreement of the Blocking area of High Pressure to our West, finally moving out!. Along with that, they are also in agreement of the arrival of our First Pacific Storm of the year arriving here around the 28th of February. And if you really want to go out on a limb, they also show several Pacific Storms into SoCal through March 5th. So keep your fingers crossed for that.
Overnight as the front came through the area, very gusty winds were reported across the mountain. Gusts from 10-40mph were seen in many areas. Fog and clouds are currently hovering below the 6500′ level so plan a little extra time for your morning travels along with wet and possibly icy road surfaces. This system should clear out this morning leaving partly cloudy skies with a chance for a few showers throughout the day. The next two system for later in the week should take a more westerly path as the High is expected to retrograde to the Northwest. This is what I will be watching to see if the models are correct in there forecast of a change in our weather pattern. If these systems do take a more Westerly path, that means they will be able to pick up moisture from over the Ocean. So far all of our systems have been Continental based, which means they have very little available moisture to bring rain to the West Coast.
Today’s Temperatures:
Crestline and Lake Arrowhead areas: 30-35*/12-25*-Prtly/Cldy
Running Springs & Green Valley Lake: 25-30*/09-19*-Prtly/Cldy
Big Bear: 23-28*/05-15*-Prtly/Cldy
San Bernardino: 53-58*/35-40*-Prtly/Cldy
That’s it for now, have a good day, and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC