Sunday, December 31, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
Today we will start the day with high based clouds at or about the 20-30k’ level. We continue to have a weak upper level North East flow across the area due to a 4mb pressure gradient from Tonopah to San Diego. At the lower levels a South West flow is present with some low clouds and fog along the Coastal areas. Temperatures will remain about the same through the week with some slight cooling. Daytime highs will run in the upper 50s to mid 60s with overnight lows from the mid 30s to low 40s below the 6000′ level. Above that elevation, temps will be in the mid to upper 50s during the day with overnight lows from the mid 20s to low 30s.
This week there is a lot of activity off the West Coast. We will start the week under a ridge of High pressure. then a cut off Low will develop to our West for Tuesday. That will push high clouds and possibly some ridge fog on the south facing slopes for Wednesday/Thursday. There will be a 10% chance for some localized drizzle and or a quick sprinkle. As that system passes to our North, another cut off Low will develop bringing more low clouds and possible fog to the area for Friday. Again, a chance for a shower and or drizzle to the south facing slopes locally. At this time, Friday looks like the best chance to see some precipitation locally for the next seven day period. I would put a 25% chance for a shower for Friday as it looks today. These will be warm systems from over the Ocean to our West, so the snow or freezing levels will remain high through the week. So, there are three of these systems that will affect our weather over the week ahead. All of these systems are Cut Off Lows and are hard to be sure what they will actually do. This is how it looks this morning. A Cut Off Low is an area of low pressure that has separated from the guidance of the Jet stream temporarily. They tend to form off of the West Coast, bobble around for a couple days or so, then reconnect with the Jet Stream and move on. So forecasting where they will go is based on experience, knowledge, and model forecast trends combined. I will be taking a day off tomorrow so I will say to everyone now, have Happy New Year, and may 2018 be a great year for all!! Thank you for your support over the past years. I’ll be back with the latest forecast Tuesday the 2nd of January.
Have a good day and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Saturday, December 30, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
The weather today will be pretty much the same as we have had for the last couple of weeks. Light offshore/onshore flow across most of the area with a few high clouds and above normal daytime temperatures. Yesterday I posted a hopeful scenario of a chance for rain in the longer range outlook, but now that is looking rather unlikely. The previously forecasted trough of low pressure will dive south off of the West Coast as planned, however, it will not be able to break down the resilient Ridge off the California Coast. Therefore, the moisture in the way of rainfall associated with that Cut Off Low will stay North of SoCal. We may pick up some coastal fog and clouds along the south facing slopes locally but that looks like about it. This will take us through Wednesday. Thursday and Friday, a Ridge will return to the area with gusty NE winds likely for that time period. Another area of low pressure will push through just North of our area late Friday and into Saturday, but at this time that doesn’t look to promising either. Ehhhh!
Temperatures for the Crestline and Lake Arrowhead areas will remain above normal with highs in the mid 60s through the rest of the year. Overnight lows will be from the mid 30s to low 40s across the local area. Running Springs and Green Valley lake will have temperatures from the mid 50s during the day with overnight lows from 25-35*. Big Bear will have daytime Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s with overnight lows from the mid teens to the mid 20s. We can expect to see mostly clear skies around the Mountain with increasing High level clouds tomorrow. the local winds will be light and mostly from the south today becoming more variable over the weekend. On the longer range outlook, the Forecast Models are so out of phase that it’s not even worth talking about. So all I can say is, keep your fingers crossed and do a rain dance.
Have a good day and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Friday, December 29, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
Today temperatures across the area will be a little warmer than yesterday. Temperatures for the Crestline, and Lake Arrowhead areas will be from 65 to 70* with overnight lows from 36-44*. Big Bear, Running Springs, and Green Valley lake will see high temps around the 61-65* mark with overnight low temps from the upper teens in Big Bear, to the upper 20s to low 30s for GVL and RS. Light and variable winds today with clear skies will be the forecast through Sunday. Temperatures will cool a few degrees each day for the next five days. Sunday night through Monday we will see increasing high and mid level clouds across the area as a trough of low pressure digs south along the West Coast. A Cut Off Low will develop at the bottom of the trough Monday, over the Pacific Ocean, East of Central California. By Wednesday, the Cut off Low will open up while moving West toward SoCal, bringing a slight chance for a light rain shower as it moves through the area for Wednesday and Thursday. Clearing skies will follow the departing trough for Friday and Saturday. Another chance for rain will arrive for Saturday night and Sunday as another trough of low pressure develops and moves through the area. So as it looks this morning, we indeed may see a pattern chance for the beginning of the New Year, and beyond. So be hopeful that this will signal a change from the abnormally dry weather pattern we are currently in.
Have a good day and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Thursday, December 28, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
Running late today.
Finally, there is some hope for a Weather pattern change late in the forecast!!
For today, continued warmer than normal temperatures across all of SoCal. For the mountain areas, daytime high temperatures will run from 59-67* with nighttime lows running from 35-42. Big Bear and Green Valley lake will be a little cooler at night with lows in the 25-32* range. Continued light and variable winds across the area with mostly clear skies will last through Friday afternoon when a SW flow will return to the area. This may be the beginning of a weather pattern change for all of California. Although the forecast models are not in agreement at this time, it looks like a long wave trough is going to set up off of the West Coast. There will be a chance for a shower January 2nd as a weak wave moves through to our North. Then, it looks like a digging trough of low pressure will cut off and become a cut off low later in the week. If this comes to fruition, we could have several chances for precipitation throughout the first week and beyond of January. On the longer range models, toward the end of the first week of January, a cold air mass is forecast to arrive here so snow will be a good possibility around the 4th or 5th. So even though I am stepping out of my comfort zone in forecasting, this is the most promising outlook I have seen so far. Fingers crossed. Have a good day and enjoy the nice mountain weather.
On the Global models, it looks like the La Nina may have peaked. So maybe we can save our Winter yet! We’ll see.
Have a good day and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Wednesday, December 27, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
For today through New Years Eve, we will continue to have temperatures from 5-10* above normal for the mountain areas. Clear skies with light and variable winds will accompany the warmer than normal weather through the period. High pressure to our West will continue to be the dominate feature in our SoCal weather. The Valley areas will be warmer than normal as well with temperatures running from 10-15* warmer than normal there. For the mountain areas daytime temperatures will run from 60-65* with overnight lows from 35-42*. Big Bear, Running Springs, and Green Valley Lake will see daytime highs in the mid 50s to low 60s through the period with overnight lows running from the mid 20s to low 30s. The Valley below will have daytime highs around 78-84* and overnight lows from 50-54*. All areas will see clear skies through the Weekend.
On the longer range outlook, starting on the 2nd of January, the models diverge at that point. The GFS still holds clear weather in the forecast while the ECMWF is still favoring a chance for rain locally. I think we will begin to see a pattern change soon but not for a week or so. On the longer range outlook, around the 7th of January looks like a better chance to see our first Winter weather to the local area, as it looks from this mornings models. On the Global models, it looks like the La Nina may have peaked. So maybe we can save our Winter yet! We’ll see.
Have a good day and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Tuesday, December 26, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
I hope you all had a good Holiday yesterday. The weather didn’t seem much like Winter, but it was a nice day.
Today we will continue to have high based clouds moving North across SoCal from a Sub tropical Low off the Baja California Coast. High pressure aloft will strengthen off of the West coast over the next several days bringing in warmer temperatures to all of SoCal through next Saturday. This mornings soundings show a weak offshore flow from Tonopah to the San Diego area. Over the next few days, we will have variable winds alternating from the NE to the SW due to diurnal heating and cooling at the surface levels between the desert and the coastal areas. For the rest of this week, no major changes are expected. On the longer range outlook, this mornings ECMWF and the GFS begin to differ Sunday. The GFS stays with the same pattern we have had for the last month, High pressure over the West with continued fair weather for SoCal. The ECMWF shows a different forecast. On the European Model, (ECMWF) they go with an area of low pressure digging south along the West Coast Sunday, arriving here with showers for Monday. I will of course be watching these models to see how they evolve over the next few days. Hopefully the European model will pan out. There are a couple of Global changes occurring that could affect our weather here as well. The SOI has gone negative for several days now along with temperatures beginning to warm in the Indian Ocean, which could signal a weakening of the La Nina and a much needed change in our weather along the West Coast or Eastern Pacific.
Temperatures today for the Crestline and Lake Arrowhead areas will be from 57-64* today with overnight lows from 39-45*. Green Valley Lake, Running Springs, and Big Bear will be in the upper 50s today with overnight lows from 26-35*. San Bernardino will have highs from 72-76* today and overnight lows around 50*. Continued fair weather through Saturday.
Have a good day and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Sunday, December 24, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
High pressure continues to dominate the weather across all of SoCal, and will for the next five plus days. High clouds will pass over for most of the day today making for nice sunsets and sunrise pictures. Offshore flow this morning will slowly turn onshore over the next few days as High pressure weakens slightly. Coastal fog and low clouds may develop for tomorrow spreading Inland Tuesday. Temperatures will remain pretty close to what they have been. Light and variable winds with very low humidity levels will continue through the week.
Today’s temperatures for the Crestline and Lake Arrowhead areas will be from 60-65* with overnight lows from 36-40*. Running Springs, Green Valley Lake, and Big Bear will have daytime high temperatures from 57-62* and overnight lows from 24-28*. San Bernardino will be in the mid 70s today and overnight lows will run from 45-50*.
The long range forecast models still are showing clear skies for SoCal through the end of the year. After the first of the year, a couple of the forecast models are showing the possibility of a system getting close to SoCal or maybe a chance for some moisture.
To everyone out there in cyber land, have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
Have a good day and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Saturday, December 23, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
Well, not to much going on in the weather today. Looks like we will have high level cloud cover around the 25-30,000 foot level for most, if not all, day today. Since there is nothing on the Horizon as far as the weather goes, I have spent my time this morning looking at the longer range model forecasts for the South Western regions. For today through the first of the New Year, there is nothing in the models for SoCal. After New Years Day, which is getting into the crystal ball land, there is some hope for early January with a couple of the models, but the CFS shows nothing through the end of January for SoCal. So now you know no more than when you began reading this blog. The area of High Pressure that’s been deflecting the Jet Stream to our North, just won’t break down. This has been a problem over the last several years. The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, (RRR) along the West Coast, as some call it, has become a real problem with the Winter rainy season for the West. This blocking pattern sets up along the West Coast and won’t budge. So, we end up with very little rain, and or snow in the West while it is in place. Last year when the RRR did not develop, the Sierras had plentiful rain and snow. This year, with the blocking ridge in place, the chances for rain and or snow is not looking good along the west coast for the next week to ten days, and beyond.
So for this weekend, high clouds today will be the forecast. Winds will be light and variable for the next couple of days. Generally, we will continue to have an offshore flow for the next several days. Tomorrow, the NE winds may pick up, but at this time, it doesn’t look like what we have seen over the past two weeks, just more gusty NE winds. The weather for Christmas Day will be a little warmer and weather wise, a nice day. Temperatures for the Crestline, Lake Arrowhead, and surrounding areas will be in the mid upper 50s today. Overnight lows will be from 35-42*. For the Running Springs, Green Valley Lake and Big Bear areas, Highs today will run from 54-59* with overnight lows from 24-32*. Clear skies with light and variable winds.
So overall, the forecast looks pretty boring for this time of year. Have a good day and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Friday, December 22, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
The Santa Ana Winds blew strong across the area yesterday. Peak wind gusts from the local area were from 70mph at Playground Drive, 40mph at my location, 42mph in Deer Lodge, and 24mph in Green Valley Lake. This morning, the winds have calmed down in all areas. Overnight temperatures were quite cold with lows running in the upper 20s to low 30s for all locations other than Big Bear where the low was 14*. The Continental Low pressure that brought some drizzle, and a few snow flakes to the area has moved on all the way to Texas this morning. And so have the winds behind it. Today we will warm a few degrees during the day by around 10-15* for most areas. Light and variable winds can be expected along with clear skies.
The area of High Pressure that is to our West refuses to break down. This is and will keep the storm track North of our area through at least the end of this year. A few days ago it looked as if the things were starting to change, but the Resilient Ridge of High pressure remains locked in place. As it looks this morning, very little change is in the five to ten day forecast. Dominate High pressure over SoCal with alternating onshore and offshore winds through the period.
Temperatures for the Crestline, Lake Arrowhead, and surrounding areas will be in the upper 40s to low 50s today. Overnight lows will be from 33-39*. For the Running Springs, Green Valley Lake and Big Bear areas, Highs today will run from 45-49* with overnight lows from 19-26*. Clear skies with light and variable winds.
So overall, the forecast looks pretty boring for this time of year. Have a good day and thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com RC

Thursday, December 21, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
Today, Winter officially begins. This is also the shortest day of the year.
As expected, last nights system produced very little moisture for our area. I had a few snowflakes and some drizzle at my location here in Crestline around 8pm. Just enough to dampen the roads and that was about it. Behind the departing front, strong gusty NE winds have arrived and currently are blowing across the area. Wind gusts are running from 10-25mph except for the more wind prone areas like Playground drive W/Station that has winds from 30-45mph currently as of 4:30am. Cold air has also arrived on schedule bringing low overnight temperatures to all of the area. Big Bear and Green Valley Lake are in the mid teens this morning most all other stations are reporting temperatures in the mid 20s. Today we will have very cool daytime high temps due to cold air advection from the Great Basin behind the departing area of Low pressure. Highs today for the Crestline and Lake Arrowhead areas will be hard pressed to make it out of the 30s. Overnight lows will run in the low to mid 20s again tonight. Running Springs, Green Valley Lake, and Big Bear, will all see high temps in the upper 20s to low 30s today with overnight lows running in the teens to low 20s. San Bernardino will have highs today in the upper 50s to low 60s and overnight lows from 38-42*.
Today, gusty NE winds will be the main weather feature along with cold temperatures across the area. The gusty NE winds will taper off by tonight but cold air will remain in place. A RED FLAG WARNING is in place through 6pm tonight for gusty NE winds especially along the ridges, and in the canyons. Low humidity levels are also part of the RED FLAG WARNING keeping a High Fire Danger level in place for all SoCal regions. Tomorrow, clear skies and decreasing winds will be the forecast. Warmer temperatures will slowly develop over the next few days as the cold air moves East. At this time, there are no storms on the horizon for SoCal in the five day outlook. There is a chance for something between Christmas and New Years, so we’ll keep out fingers crossed for that.
This morning, State and County vehicles will likely be out clearing debris and spreading cinders on the local roads due to the gusty winds and possible ICE on the roadways. So use caution around those vehicles. Have a good day and be safe out there.
Thank You for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com *RC