Tuesday, October 31, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
Today we will have foggy or cloudy weather below the 6200′ level for most if not all of the day. The cloud layer is running from 2200′ to around 6000′ this morning and doesn’t look like it will clear out at all today. So if you are traveling on the local HWYs, plan a little extra time and don’t forget to use your headlights. An area of Low pressure in the upper atmosphere will remain over SoCal through late Thursday. This will keep the fog and low clouds around until then. Friday, weak high pressure will quickly build into SoCal and move out just as quickly Saturday in advance of a deep trough to arrive in SoCal Saturday afternoon or evening. This mornings charts look a little different than what they showed yesterday in that it now looks like most of the trough will stay just to our north around Ventura or Santa Barbara. However, a plume of moisture riding on the Sub Tropical Jet (STJ), will be very close to our area and may feed moisture into the bottom of the trough of low pressure Sunday/ Monday. So it now looks like we will have warmer temperatures for the approaching system which will keep the freezing or snow level higher than originally thought, around 9000’~. The other change is, moisture content. Depending on where the STJ ends up, we could see more or less rain. At this time, it looks like for the local mountains we could see anywhere from .50-1.00″ of rain to just a drizzle. I will of course be updating this estimate as we get closer to that time frame. Daytime temperatures for the Mountain areas will run from the low to mid 50s for Crestline and Lake Arrowhead along the Rim. For the North side of Arrowhead, Deer Lodge Park etc, today’s highs will be in the low to mid 60s with partial clearing there. For Running Springs, Green Valley Lake, and Big Bear partly cloudy to clear skies will bring warmer temperatures with highs today in the upper 50s to low 60s. Overnight lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s across the area except Big Bear where overnight lows will be in the upper 20s to low 30s. All areas will have light and variable winds today and tonight from the SSW. Have a safe and fun Halloween. *RC. Thank You for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com

Monday, October 30, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning. WOW! What a baseball game last night!
For today, A Cut Off Low is currently passing over SoCal at this time(5am). Additionally, a Catalina Eddy has formed and has helped to push the Marine layer into the Inland Valleys. Along the Rim and below, on the local HWYs, fog and low clouds will make for a foggy drive down the hill this morning. Temperatures across the Mountain today and for the rest of the week will be much cooler. Highs today are expected to be in the mid to upper 50s along the Rim and the low 60s on the North side of the area. Southerly winds will become gusty at times through the week as another trough of Low pressure arrives to the area Tuesday. Fog and clouds will deepen further tomorrow morning as a result topping out at around the 6000′ level. For the week ahead, Wednesday and through Friday, there will be a persistent Marine Layer that will continue to bring fog and low clouds along the Rim and Foothills from 4000′, to the 6000′ level at times. On the longer range outlook, a long wave trough and associated cold core low will drive south along the coast over the weekend. As it looks this morning, we should see some rain and possibly snow at the higher elevations from this system. There is a chance for Tropical Moisture from the south to be in the mix as well. So the Tropical Moisture coupled with the cold air mass form the North could make for an interesting weekend weather wise. As it stands this morning, the snow level will be from 7500-8000′ level locally. But if we do see Sub Tropical moisture blend in with the system, we could see Thunderstorms, Hail and greater rainfall amounts for the local area of the San Bernardino Mountains. Time to get out the sweaters and fire up the heater and get the Firewood in. Winter is coming. Have a good Day and enjoy the nice Fall weather in the mountains. RC Thank You for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com

Sunday, October 29, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
Today we begin a change in our weather. A Cut Off Low is off of Point Conception this morning, slowly making it’s way south along the Coast. This will bring the beginning of a cooling trend that will last for the next seven to ten days. Temperatures will cool by 5-10* for tomorrow in most areas. By the end of the week, local temperatures will be in the 50s for the daytime highs. For tomorrow morning, fog and low clouds will fill in the basin and reach up to the 2500-3500′ level along the foothills. Onshore flow will increase starting late this afternoon helping to push the deepening Marine layer into the IE for late tonight and tomorrow morning. As the cut off low passes through the area, gusty winds along with some high level clouds will be likely. At this time, no rain is expected from this low as it passes, however, drizzle along the foothills will be likely. The marine layer will only partially clear for the Valley tomorrow helping to keep the temperature’s in the low to mid 80s. Tuesday, the Marine layer will deepen to the 5000-6000′ level as a second weak trough passes through, continuing the cooling trend with highs in the mountain areas in the 50s and the Valley will have high temps in the 70s. This will be the pattern through Saturday when we will see our first good chance for some measureable rain. Saturday evening a deep Pacific trough will arrive in SoCal. This system will bring rain, and snow to the higher elevations of Northern California along with a good chance for rain to all of SoCal. This is a cold system with snow levels bottoming out somewhere around the 7000-8000′ level for our area. Rainfall amounts are trending towards .50-1.00″ for this storm locally. On the longer range outlook, it looks like we may see more systems working there way south beyond the weekends storm. Have a good Day and enjoy the nice Fall weather in the mountains. RC Thank You for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com

Saturday, October 28, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
Today across the Mountain we will have clear skies with light and variable winds from the NE changing to the SW by this evening. There is still an offshore pressure gradient this morning between Tonopah and San Diego of around 7mbs. This will help to keep the skies clear today. By this evening, the area of High pressure that has been over the Great Basin giving SoCal very warm temperatures and gusty North East winds, will move out and be replaced by an area of lower pressure. This will bring back onshore flow to SoCal along with fog to the coastal areas tonight. Also a Cut Off Low will pass over SoCal and Northern Baja Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. This will add to the development of low clouds and fog from the Coastal areas to the IE. For Monday and Tuesday mornings, there will be a good chance for fog along the Rim and the foothill areas of the IE, along with wet roads and drizzle for the morning commute on HWYs 18, 330 and 38. Temperatures across all of SoCal will be cooler today and continue to cool each day through next weekend. Highs today for Crestline and Lake Arrowhead will be from 75-80* with overnight lows in the 50-57* range. Big Bear, Green Valley Lake, and Running Springs will have highs today in the upper 60s to low 70s with overnight lows from 30-40*. San Bernardino will have highs today from 90-95* with overnight lows in the low 60s. As the Cut Off Low passes through SoCal, clouds and fog along with a very slight chance for a shower Monday night through Tuesday morning will be in the forecast. For the rest of the work week, morning low clouds and fog will last through the week. For the following weekend, it’s looking promising for rain for Saturday and or Sunday. The freezing level will be fluctuating from 8k’ to 10k’, so there will be a chance for the higher elevations to see some snow. This is to far out to be sure of anything just yet, but it looks like a possibility. That’s it for now. Thank You for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com

Friday, October 27, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
Well, it looks like we will have and interesting week ahead for the Mountains from Crestline to Big Bear. Today we will start off with a South West flow across the area that by noon will change to a North East (Santa Ana) flow again, with gusty winds from 5-15 mph except in the wind prone areas which will see wind gusts from 15/35mph. These conditions will last through Sunday when a Cut Off Low will begin to affect SoCal as it moves in from the West. At that time, we will return to an onshore flow. As the Cut Off Low arrives, we will see an increase in the Marine layer with fog and low clouds moving in from the Coast possibly to the Inland Foothills of San Bernardino by Monday morning. As the Low arrives it will bring a cooling trend that will return temperatures to more normal levels through the week ahead. San Bernardino will be in the mid to upper 90s today and by Monday, temperatures will be in the mid 80s there. For the mountain areas, temperatures will cool as well with highs today in the mid to upper 70s for most areas with a few of the warmer locations making the 80* mark. As we go through the weekend, temperatures across the Mountain will slowly fall as well with highs by Monday in the upper 60s to low 70s. As the Cut Off Low passes through SoCal Monday and Tuesday, we will see gusty winds from the SW with an increasing Marine layer and possibly some Ridge Fog as well. This will clear out by Tuesday evening and clear skies will return through the end of the work week under weak High pressure. So for Halloween, a typical weather pattern will be in place locally with gusty winds, cool temperatures and maybe light fog along the Rim. For the long range outlook, a trough of Low pressure will slide south along the West Coast arriving here on Saturday November 4th, bringing a chance for rain, and snow to the higher elevations locally. At this time, it looks like we could see freezing temperatures to around the 7000-8000′ foot level by the end of that system locally. Additionally, it looks like from this mornings models that we may see some instability wrapped into this system that may produce Thunderstorms and hail to lower elevations as well. The precipitation charts are hinting toward from .50-1.00″ of moisture from this system for next weekend at this time. So this will definitely be worth watching. This is a tentative outline of what may be coming. As always, I will be updating my forecast daily and keeping you posted as the system gets closer.
It may be a good time this weekend to get together those winter weather items like snow chains, shovels, and find the snow blower to see if it needs service. Winter is coming! That’s it for now. Thank You for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com

Thursday, October 26, 2017

 

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Thank you, Douglas Burkart for this pic.


Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
All of the Warnings and Advisories have expired for our area. Clear skies today with light and variable winds will make for a nice day. Temperatures will be a little cooler due to an onshore flow across much of SoCal today. Along the Coastal areas there will be a chance for night and morning low clouds and fog. For the next few days, mostly clear skies with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s will be the forecast for the Crestline and Lake Arrowhead areas. Big Bear, Running Springs, and Green Valley lake will have daytime temperatures from the upper 60s to low 70s with light and variable winds alternating from the SW to the NE. For the Valley and San Bernardino area, temperatures will be cooler today with the expected high temperature to be in the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows will cool off to around 60* tonight. Humidity levels will be slowly rising today and should remain in the 20-35% range for the next few days across the Mountain areas. This will help keep the Fire Danger levels in check. A cut off low will pass over SoCal around Sunday but will only bring gusty winds with it and an increase in the Marine layer for SoCal. Were still looking at the possibility of some measureable rain for around the 4-6th of November for most all of California. The snow levels for this system will be around the 8000″ level dropping to around 7000’at the back side of the system. So there will be a chance for some snow flurries in the higher elevations around GVL and BB if the system doesn’t clear out to fast, for the first weekend in November. ONLY A CHANCE! As always, the temperatures will be coldest at the back of the storm. This system is too far out to be sure of it’s arrival or precipitation possibility at this time, this is just how it looks this morning. For Halloween, it looks like the weather will be very Fallish with cool temperatures around the Mountain. That’s it for now. Thank You for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com

Wednesday, October 25, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
A WIND ADVISORY will continue through 2pm today. The RED FLAG WARNING will be canceled by 6pm tonight as well.
Change is coming! Today, we will see decreasing winds for most areas through the morning as high pressure over the Great Basin slowly deflates. High temperatures across all of SoCal will begin a slow and steady decline as well. Highs around the Mountain will be very close to what we had yesterday with temperatures running in the mid to upper 70s for most areas from Crestline to Arrowhead. Big Bear and Running Springs will be a little cooler with highs expected to be in the 70-75* range there. For San Bernardino, Highs today will still be very warm with high temperatures expected to be in the mid to upper 90s. Currently in SB, the temperature is around 83* slightly cooler than yesterday at this time. Tomorrow night, overnight lows will recover nicely to the mid ~60s. Gusty NE winds will still be along the foothills, Canyons and Ridges through most of the day. By tomorrow, we should see a SW flow return to the area with a cooling trend to begin. Clear skies today will be the forecast and for the rest of the weekend ahead. Halloween look like a typical Fall day with variable winds and cool temperatures. On the long range outlook, for Nov 2-6th, a couple of low pressure systems will slide south along the California Coast. A chance for rain will begin on the 2nd and last through around the 6th as two systems come through. These will be fairly warm storms for our area with as it looks this morning, less than .50 moisture with each. However, this is a waze out and things will change. There is a possibility of some Atmospheric River enhancement (AR) from the south so updates will include this as well. Fortunately, so far, we have remained fire safe around the Mountain, good job everyone!
That’s it for now. Thank You for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com

Tuesday, October 24, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
A WIND ADVISORY and RED FLAG WARNING have been extended through Wednesday @ 2pm for the mountains.
Very warm overnight temperatures across the SoCal area were recorded last night. San Bernardino is at 85* as of 5am this morning. Yes, 85*. At my WX/ST, I had 65* as of 5am. For today, North East winds will continue for most of the day. Currently at Playground Drive WX/ST winds are 36mph gusting to 48mph. The Canyons and ridges will see the strongest winds today. So if you are driving on HWY18 or 330 use caution. The NWS has issued a Wind Advisory, Red Flag Warning, and Excessive Heat Warning all for the SoCal area that will expire Wednesday by 8pm. High Pressure over the Great Basin is to blame for all of this Hot Weather and gusty winds. A fairly steep pressure gradient from Tonopah to San Diego will slowly decrease beginning later today, reducing the winds
as well as gradually bringing in a slow cooling trend. By Thursday, we may see a return to an onshore flow with greater cooling across all of SoCal as a trough of low pressure moves through the Northern part of California. Clear skies, gusty winds and very warm temperatures will be the forecast for today. For the next three days, temperatures will be in the 74-82* range for the Crestline and Lake Arrowhead areas with overnight lows in the mid 50s. Big Bear and Running Springs will have high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s with overnight lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.San Bernardino will see highs today in the upper 90s to 100* overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s. High Temperatures and the gusty winds should all peak today. That’s it for now. Thank You for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com

Monday, October 23, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
A WIND ADVISORY and RED FLAG WARNING have been extended through Wednesday @ 2pm for the mountains. North East winds will begin to pick up today around 11am across most of the local areas. Currently winds are from the NE at most locations from 2-10mph except PlayGround Drive Wx/St where winds are steady at 36mph. The driving force behind the NE or Santa Ana winds is a building pressure gradient between Tonopah Nevada, and San Diego. Surface High pressure over Tonopah, will increase to 1030mbs while San Diego will be at 1016 making for a 14mb difference. This will give us a pretty good wind event here. Winds are expected to be from 10-25mph across the local area. Wind gusts in the canyons, ridges and the wind prone areas having gusts from 20-45mph from the North East. Temperatures for the mountains will be in the mid to low 80s over the next 5 days. The Valley will have daytime high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s for the next five days as well. Humidity levels will fall to the single digits each afternoon through Wednesday before beginning to recover Wednesday night. At this time, the pressure gradient looks like it will peak Tuesday morning, so the highest winds will likely be from Monday night through Tuesday morning. The Winds will taper off Tuesday afternoon and should be mild by Wednesday morning. Thursday we will be under a “Ridge” of high pressure across the area with a South West wind flow returning at that time. As always, report any suspicious activity to 911, especially during these Santa Ana Wind events. That’s it for now. Thank You for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com

Crestline

San Bernardino

Sunday, October 22, 2017

 

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Today’s Forecast for Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
Today we will have clear skies across the area and slightly warmer temperatures for the mountains. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 70s for Lake Arrowhead and Crestline. Running Springs and Big Bear will see highs today in the mid 70s. Early this morning, Big Bear had an overnight low of 29.5* in the Shay Meadows area. Winter is coming! Across the mountain we will see increasing North to North East winds as High pressure builds in the Great Basin over the next couple of days. As the pressure builds, a pressure gradient will develop between San Diego and Tonopah, Nevada of around 15mbs~. North East winds across the SoCal region will become gusty with winds from 10-40mph beginning later today through Tuesday pm. A RED FLAG WARNING will be in effect for later today through Tuesday at 8pm. Low humidity and hot temperatures below the 4000′ level will be the forecast through Wednesday. San Bernardino and the Valley areas will see daytime high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s with gusty NE winds. Temperatures in the mountains will remain in the 70s to low 80s through Wednesday. As always, report any suspicious activity to 911, especially during these Santa Ana Wind events. That’s it for now. Thank You for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com

Crestline

Lake Arrowhead