Monday, July 31, 2017

 

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Good Morning.
Today’s Weather Outlook for the Crestline, Lake Arrowhead, Big Bear, and surrounding Communities.
Yesterday, temperatures around the area ranged from 84*-95*. Humidity levels were a little higher as you could most likely feel with the heat. A couple Thunderstorms developed late in the afternoon over the 29Palms area again, but no effect on the local area was felt from those storms. Today, Monsoonal Moisture will begin to increase as the day wears on. Today, and through the rest of the work week we will have an increasing probability for Thunderstorms in the Big Bear, Green Valley Lake and Running Springs areas. Tuesday through Thursday, more widespread storms will be likely, possibly spreading into the Crestline and Arrowhead areas with a chance in the Valley as well. Precipital moisture should peak Wednesday with the likelihood of rain accompanying any Thunderstorms that do develop. As always, be sure to keep an eye on the weather for changing conditions especially if you are camping or hiking in the back country. Flash Floods are always a possibility. All of this is due to an area of High pressure that is centered over Texas, along with a meso low off of the California Coast. This is a good set up for T/Storms in our area. This set up will remain in place through Wednesday/Thursday. So we could see storms develop at any time during this period, day or night. Some Forecast models show Big Bear getting over and inch of rain by Friday. Lessening, as you head West along the mountain. So for today, temperatures will be from the low 80s in Big Bear and in the mid to upper 80s in Crestline, and Arrowhead. Mostly clear skies this morning with increasing clouds this afternoon in some areas mostly toward Big Bear and maybe Running Springs. Afternoon pop up T/Storms will be possible in the afternoon hours most anywhere through the week. Gusty winds will accompany storms that do develop, other than that, winds will be light and variable across the area. High temperatures tomorrow and Wednesday will be slightly cooler especially if we get significant cloud cover. And that’s the way it is, Monday, July 31st. For those of you who remember Walter Cronkite.
Flash Floods can occur even if it is not raining in your immediate area.
Thanks for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com.

Sunday, July 30, 2017

 

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TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:



Good Morning.
Today’s Weather Outlook for the Crestline, Lake Arrowhead, Big Bear, and surrounding Communities.
Lots going on in the weather today around the Southwest. Yesterday, a pop up Thunderstorm produced Lightning around the 29 palms area before dissipating as it moved East. Overnight, nocturnal Thunderstorms developed at the Arizona California border along the Colorado River area. These are in the process of dissipating this morning. But will redevelop later today. If you looked to the North East early this morning, the cirrus tops of those storms were visible here. For today, temperatures will be quite warm again today. Highs are expected to be in the upper 80s for the Crestline and Arrowhead areas, and in the low to mid 80s for Big Bear and Running Springs. Thunderstorms may develop in the Big Bear area today but will be more likely Monday through Wednesday. For the Crestline and Arrowhead areas, Warm and mostly clear skies will be the forecast for today with some clouds building to our East. Any Thunderstorms that develop today should stay along the Deep Creek Divide and North, and or East, from there. Tomorrow, a Easterly atmospheric wave will arrive to the SoCal region. This will add vorticity/convection to the area increasing the possibility for Thunderstorm development across the San Bernardino mountains and possibly the Elsinore area through Wednesday. This is when we will have our best chances for Thunderstorms locally. At this time, the PWAT levels look like it will run from 1.4″-1.8″ locally. So rain will probably accompany any Thunderstorms that develop from Monday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. As for Flash Flooding, if you are in a Flash Flood prone area, always plan an escape route. Flash Floods can occur even if it is not raining in your immediate area.
Thanks for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com.

Saturday, July 29, 2017

 

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Good Morning.
Today’s Weather Outlook for the Crestline, Lake Arrowhead, Big Bear, and surrounding Communities.
Onshore flow today with mostly clear skies for the Mountains and warm temperatures will be the days forecast. High pressure to our East will expand over the next few days. This will bring a few changes to our weather here in the mountains. As the High develops, it will move to the West slightly, then South. This will entrain Tropical Moisture in the circulation around the High directing it towards SoCal, beginning later today. As the Tropical Moisture moves into the Southern Deserts today and tomorrow, they will have clouds develop along the Desert facing Mountain Ridges with a chance for Thunderstorms. Precipital Moisture (PWAT) levels will be on the rise over the next four days starting at around 1.2″ and by Tuesday and Wednesday, as much as 1.8″ or higher, locally. Monday through Wednesday of next week, we will have the highest chance for T/Storm development for the Big Bear area as well as the back side of Arrowhead. Some of these storms may drift across to the Crestline and Twin Peaks areas, Tuesday and Wednesday. There will be a possibility for T/Storms to develop along the Elsinore Convergence Zone on Tuesday and Wednesday as well. This is when we will have our best chance for T/Storms in the Crestline area as these systems have shown in the past. Wednesday or Thursday, the area of High pressure will strengthen to around 596dm over SoCal which will bring very warm temperatures to all of SoCal Thursday through the weekend. Thunderstorms will be possible for the Big Bear area through the next five to seven days. Along with the T/Storms, there will be a possibility of heavy rain, so keep up with the local forecast info if you are out in those areas that are prone to Flash Flooding. Deep Creek, Big Bear, Forest Falls etc. Better safe than sorry. Today for the Crestline and Arrowhead areas, Highs will be in the mid 80s with overnight lows in the low 60s. Big Bear, Running Springs and surrounding areas will have highs today in the upper 70s with some clouds later today. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds will be from the south from 3-10mph across the region today. Todays FIRE DANGER LEVEL will be at VERY HIGH so please be careful with any outdoor fires. There are no new Tropical developments in the Eastern Pacific today. However, Hilary has developed an eyewall again this morning. She just won’t give it up! Both Irwin and Hilary are expected to merge around Monday as they head on a Northerly path over the Ocean.Thanks for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com.

Friday, July 28, 2017

 

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Good Morning.
Today’s Weather Outlook for the Crestline, Lake Arrowhead, Big Bear, and surrounding Communities.
Clear skies along with a light breeze makes for a good morning to relax over a cup of hot coffee. There isn’t much going on with our weather for the next few days. High pressure across the West will expand in the coming days which will give us slightly warmer temperatures through early next week. To our East near the AZ/CA border, there is a boundary that will keep the Monsoon Moisture along the Colorado River and into AZ and New Mexico for now. Currently, there is a weak trough, or atmospheric wave, to our West along the Central California Coast. This will likely increase the Marine layer and South West flow locally for the SoCal Coastline, and Inland areas. Temperatures in the Inland Empire will be near 100* for the next few days with nighttime lows running around 67-70*. The Mountains will have high temperatures in the mid 80s for Arrowhead and Crestline, Big Bear and Running Springs will be slightly cooler with highs expected to be in the upper 70s for the next couple of days. Overnight low temps will be in the upper 50s to low 60s for the Crestline and Arrowhead areas while Big Bear will be in the upper 40s to low 50s, and R/S will be a little warmer with lows in the mid 50s. Monday-ish, depending on what the area of high pressure does, we may see some Tropical Moisture push a little further West bringing a chance for Thunderstorms around the Big Bear and High Desert areas of SoCal. The 700mb maps show an influx of moisture at that level for late in the weekend and into early next week for the SoCal region.
Currently there are no Hurricanes in the Northeastern pacific. Hilary and Irwin have been downgraded to Tropical disturbances and will head into the Northern part of the US next week. We shouldn’t see any effect from either of these systems. Thanks for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com.

Thursday, July 27, 2017

 

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Good Morning.
Today’s Weather Outlook for the Crestline, Lake Arrowhead, Big Bear and surrounding communities.
Clear skies and slightly warmer temperatures, with a South West breeze, will be today’s Forecast for the Mountains. Yesterday we had really nice Towering Cumulus clouds over the Desert areas making for a nice backdrop to our Mountain. No Thunderstorms were reported locally. Today as a dryer South West flow develops, there should be little to no cloud development around the area. If you happened to notice late yesterday, the Towering Cumulus clouds took off to the North and East as the upper air flow changed to the Southwest. High pressure will dig in over the Great Basin for the next few days giving us a nice Weather pattern for the rest of the week. The option for the remnants of once Hurricane Hilary to move into the SoCal area that looked like a possibility yesterday, is now off the table, for now. Monsoonal Moisture is expected to move in the Inland SoCal area for Saturday through next Wednesday. Dew Point and Humidity levels will be on the rise along with temperatures locally with highs expected to be in the mid to upper 80s for the weekend and early next week. Sunday through next Wednesday, there will be an increasing possibility for Thunderstorms to return to the Big Bear and Forest Falls areas. There will also be a slight chance for them to push out into the Inland Valley Sunday through Tuesday. As usual, it looks like the DEEP CREEK DIVIDE will be the cut off for most of the storms that do develop. We’ll see. Our best opportunity for T/Storms in the Crestline and Southern side of the Arrowhead areas are from storms that develop in and around the Elsinore Convergence Zone and head North and East through Redlands/San Bernardino and along the front side of the mountain spilling over into Crestline and along the Rim from there. High temperatures today are expected to be about the same as yesterday with highs in the mid to upper 80s for the Arrowhead and Crestline areas, and in the upper 70s to low 80s for Big Bear and Running Springs. Overnight lows will recover nicely to the upper 50s to low 60s locally and in the upper 40s to low 50s for Big Bear. Once Hurricane Irwin has been downgraded to a Tropical depression, Hilary is now at CAT1 and falling apart as she runs into less friendly waters.. At this time, neither of these will effect SoCal over the next five days.
Thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com
RC

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

 

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Good Morning.
Today’s Weather Outlook for the Crestline, Lake Arrowhead, Big Bear and surrounding communities.
Yesterday’s high temperatures across the Mountain ran from 73* in Big Bear to the low to mid 80s in Crestline and Arrowhead. Overnight lows ran from 51* in BB, and the mid 60s for Arrowhead and Crestline. Today we will begin a change in the weather pattern across most of SoCal. Monsoonal Moisture will move out today as High pressure builds to our East and dryer air moves in. There will still be a chance today for afternoon Thunder storms locally, but the as the air mass dries out this afternoon, the chances will lessen. A dryer South West flow will move over the area by tomorrow as high pressure builds bringing in warmer temperatures through the Saturday. This will not be a heat wave like we have seen several times this summer, we will only warm by a few degrees with highs in the mid to upper 80s for most areas through Saturday. Then things get iffy. A large spread on the models for the following five day period starts Saturday. Monsoonal Moisture will return Saturday. After that, the models diverge significantly. The ECMWF shows the remnants of now CAT2 Hurricane Hilary, and CAT 1 Hurricane Irwin moving North along the Coast with little effect on SoCal. However, the GFS model takes a different path and brings both systems together off of SoCal and brings them as a Tropical Storm remnant into SoCal early next week with rain and Thunder Storms locally. I prefer the latter scenario. Either way, Tropical Moisture will return with cooler temperatures and possible Thunder Storms likely for the period of Sunday through early next week. This will be interesting to watch as it is very rare for two Hurricanes to converge along the West Coast of California. So enjoy the day today with mostly clear skies, light winds and comfortable temperatures across the area. Thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com
RC

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

 

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Good Morning.
Today’s Weather Outlook for the Crestline, Lake Arrowhead, Big Bear and surrounding communities.
Mostly cloudy skies this morning at 4:30am will likely continue through much of the day. An area of High pressure to our East and an area of Low pressure off of San Francisco will work together to bring a chance for Thunder Storms to the area again today. Precipitable Water Levels (the amount of water contained in a column of air from the surface to the upper atmosphere) will range from 1.4″ locally to 2.2″ over the Desert and Big Bear area today. In the areas where Thunderstorms do develop today, there will be a chance for Flash Flooding in areas that are prone to heavy runoff. Lightning yesterday started a couple of fires in the Big Bear area and will be a possibility again today. Hopefully, we will see rain with the storms today. Shay Meadows received up to .50″of rain yesterday while other areas received from .01 in Crestline to .24in Fawnskin. Strong and gusty winds will likely accompany T/Storms today along with a chance for Hail as well. Today should be the last day of T/Storms until this weekend when another surge of Moisture returns. Temperatures today will be from the upper 70s to low 80s for Arrowhead and Crestline while Running Springs and Big Bear will be in the low to mid 70s. Tomorrow, temperatures will begin to warm up and each day thereafter through Saturday as High pressure expands over the West and pushing the Monsoonal flow away from SoCal. To our South, there are three Tropical systems. Greg, a Tropical Storm at this time, Irwin, a CAT1 Hurricane, and Hilary, a CAT2 Hurricane at this time. On the longer range Models, Hilary and Irwin may work together as they move North West and bring a chance for rain to our area late in the weekend or early next week. Thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com
RC

Monday, July 24, 2017

 

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TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:



Good Morning.
Today’s Weather Outlook for the Crestline, Lake Arrowhead, Big Bear and surrounding communities.
Monsoonal Moisture will move into the area today from the South East. Currently, as of 4:30am, a cluster of Thunderstorms are moving toward the San Diego area from the East. More storms are located near the Colorado River and will also move East today. By this afternoon, We will likely see increased cloud cover locally with T/Storms likely in the Big Bear area and possibly spreading to the Arrowhead and Crestline areas. Generally, when T/Storms move in from the Big Bear area, they stay North and East along the Deep Creek Divide, unless they come from the Elsinore area. Precipital Water levels (PWAT) will be up to 2.00″ in the Eastern Desert areas and from 1.40-1.80″ in the Big Bear area today. As the storms arrive later today especially in the Big Bear area, heavy rain may accompany any T/Storms that develop. FLASH FLOODING will be a possibility so be prepared. Temperatures today will be a little cooler with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s for most areas. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s in Big Bear to the mid 50s for Running Springs, Arrowhead and Crestline. We should see clouds developing later today which will help to keep the temps down. Tomorrow will be much like today with another round of T/Storms possible. Wednesday through Friday we will clear out and warm up a few degrees before the return of more Monsoonal Moisture for the weekend. To our south, there are two Tropical storms and one Hurricane, Hilary, hmmm? Hilary will be the one to watch as it looks like it will follow the Baja peninsula and possibly make landfall as a remnant tropical storm in SoCal next week. As it looks this morning on the long range outlook, we may have a couple chances for rain in the ten day forecast. Thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com
RC

Sunday, July 23, 2017

 

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TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST:



Good Morning.
Today’s Weather Outlook for the Crestline, Lake Arrowhead, Big Bear and surrounding communities Area Forecast.
After a nice trip around the State visiting family, were back home. Doing the weather blog on a outdated laptop has been quite a challenge so being back at my desktop, is a welcome site. Thank you for your patience. Today, we will continue to have a South West flow below the 6500′ level. Above 6500′, a Easterly flow will develop today, as High pressure over the Four Corners area strengthens. Monsoonal Moisture will return to the area as the Easterly flow aloft develops around the High over the Four Corners area, bringing an increased chance for Thunderstorms to the Low Desert, and Big Bear areas today through Tuesday. Precipital water levels locally will increase to 1.3-1.8″ and a little higher over the Big Bear area over the next two days. This will add to the available moisture for any Thunderstorms that do develop, increasing the possibility of Flash Flooding in the affected areas. Temperatures today will be about the same as yesterday for most areas with increased humidity levels. Highs today for the Crestline and Arrowhead areas will be in the 84-89* range with overnight lows in the mid 60s. For Running Springs and Big Bear, Highs today will run in the upper 70s to low 80s with over night lows in the low 50s. Towering Cumulus clouds will be likely develop this afternoon with a 20% chance for a T/Storm in the Big Bear and surrounding areas. Tomorrow, temps should be a little cooler with highs in the mid to upper 70s for most areas due to increased cloud cover that is expected. Monday afternoon and Tuesday will be our best chance for Thunderstorms locally as Monsoonal Moisture will peak at that time. The GOES-16 image shows a Thunderstorm complex heading East, toward the South Western Desert areas this morning. As always, during Thunder Storms, take shelter in a safe place and be aware of your surroundings. If you are hiking our ?? in Flash Flood prone areas, make sure there is a safe place on high ground, as water may flow at any time. On another note, currently, there are three Tropical disturbances to our South. Greg, Irwin, and Hilary. All three are headed North West at this time and are expected to remain on that course for the next several days. This should insure increased surf for the next week along the South facing beaches. Surfs up! Have a great Day! Thanks for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com

RC

Friday, July 21, 2017

 

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Good Morning.
Today’s Weather Outlook for the Crestline, Lake Arrowhead, Big Bear and surrounding communities Area Forecast.
Clear and sunny skies will start off the weekend across the mountain. Temperatures will be comfortable with highs in the low 80s for most areas. Here in Sacramento, the daytime temperatures have been in the 100+ degree range each day this week, however, there has been some relief at night due to the “Delta Breeze” that comes up after dark bringing cooler air to the region from the Bay area. Back to the mountain weather, it looks like a nice weekend for the area with a dry air mass across the area for today and Saturday. Sunday, as the upper level pressure zones move around, we will return to a Monsoonal flow for SoCal with an increase in the possibility of T/Storms through early next week. Mid level moisture really increases late Sunday and Monday. This will add to the likelihood of showers accompanying any T/Storms that develop. Temperatures will remain about the same through the period with the only change being an increase in humidity levels. Winds will remain onshore with gusts from 5-10 mph. Hazy skies in the Valley will accompany 100* temperatures and poor air quality there. For the Coastal areas, it will be cool with late night and morning low clouds and fog there. On the long range outlook, not a lot of change is in the outlook there. We are in a zonal pattern across the west and it looks like other than minor day to day changes, this pattern will remain in place through the week ahead. Enjoy the weekend and the nice mountain weather. RC