Friday, JUNE 30, 2017

 

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Good Morning.
Today’s Weather outlook for the Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and other San Bernardino mountain communities:
Today we will have mostly clear skies with the exception of lots of haze from the fires all over the SoCal area that is hanging in the air. The air quality will likely be poor today across most of the Inland area. Temperatures today will be in the 79-86* range for the Crestline and Arrowhead areas with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Big Bear and Running Springs will have highs today in the 75-83* range with overnight lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. Winds today will be from the South West increasing later this afternoon. Gusts from 5-15mph with higher gusts along the ridges and wind prone areas from 10-25mph. A trailing trough from a low pressure area to our North will pass through this morning. A weak ridge will build in behind the departing trough for tomorrow which should bring in slightly warmer temperatures tomorrow. Sunday, another trough will pass through to our North with slightly cooler temperatures. Fog and low clouds may reach into the Inland Valleys for Sunday morning. Monday, we will begin a slow warming trend through the work week ahead along with possible Monsoonal Moisture moving up from Baja to that will bring an increase in Humidity levels locally. Mid week next week, as Monsoonal Moisture makes it’s way North, Thunderstorms will be likely along the Colorado River and possibly into the South Western Deserts. Here we will have a slight chance for Thunderstorms as well mid week, mostly toward the Big Bear area as it looks at this time. Tomorrow, the Crestline Parade and Fireworks activities will go on as planned. Remember, NO PERSONAL FIREWORKS are allowed in the mountains. The FIRE DANGER LEVEL will remain HIGH to VERY HIGH through the weekend. Please be careful with all outdoor BBQ’s and any other use of outdoor fire. Have a good day! Enjoy the 4th and be fire safe. RC

Thursday, JUNE 29, 2017

 

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Good Morning.
Today’s Weather outlook for the Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and other San Bernardino mountain communities:
Ahhhh.. Feels like Fall outside this morning. I had 53* at 6am and it felt great outside!! Surface pressure is weakly onshore across the area this morning. The air mass is fairly dry as well. Temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 70s and maybe a few 80* readings as a trough of low pressure passes through SoCal. Higher pressure will move back over SoCal tomorrow with slightly warmer temperatures for Friday and Saturday. Sunday, another trough will move through the area and cooler temperatures will be the result. Overall, we will be much cooler than the last couple of weeks have been. Clear skies and afternoon breezes will be about all the change we will see for the next five days. After the 4th, we may see a burst of Monsoonal Moisture push into SoCal as the area of high pressure sets up over the Four Corners area and a Low pressure expands over the Southwest. We’ll see. Maybe our first Thunderstorms of the Summer season. Temperature forecasts are, Today; 75-80* /63-67*, Friday; 80-85*/64-68*, Saturday; 80-85*/64-68*, Sunday;75-80*/60-65*.

 

Wednesday, JUNE 28, 2017

 

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Mart Fire. Picture form Crestline Soaring Web Cam.


Good Morning.
Today’s Weather outlook for the Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and other San Bernardino mountain communities:
MART FIRE: Acres as of this morning, 902, 15% containment, Weather on the Fire, humidity levels this afternoon 10-15%, Winds from 10-18mph WSW, Temperatures, 90-102* today.
This morning we have an onshore flow across the SoCal area. Weakening High pressure over the South West will give us a break in the high temperatures we have had for the last couple of weeks. A trough from an area of Low pressure North of the U.S Border (Canadian) will force the Ridge of High pressure south, and be replaced by cooler air for the next few days. Daytime high temperatures across the local area will be much more normal for this time of year over the next five days. As the trough passes through SoCal, gusty winds from 5-15mph, with higher gusts of 15-25mph in the wind prone areas along with cooler temperatures will result. High temps today will run from 74-80* with overnight lows in the 62-67* range. For Thursday, Highs will be in the 68-75* range with overnight lows in the 64-68* range. Friday, daytime temps will be from 78-85* with overnight lows in the 65-70* range. A ridge of high pressure will redevelop Friday and Saturday then followed by another trough from an area of low pressure to our north on Sunday, bringing a return of cooler air to the area at that time. Big Bear and Running springs will run a few degrees cooler through the period due to their elevation compared with the Crestline/Arrowhead areas. Clear skies with the exception of drift smoke will be the forecast through Friday. Last night smoke form the Mart Fire did move into the area for a short period of time. Depending on what the Fire does today, we may have a return of more drift smoke again this evening. Have a good day and always be Fire Safe. RC

 

Tuesday, JUNE 27, 2017

 

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CAT1 DORA


Good Morning.
Today’s Weather outlook for the Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and other San Bernardino mountain communities:
Yesterday high temperatures cooled by a few degrees across most of the mountain as a cooling trend begins to take hold. Today’s high daytime temps will again be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. I have done away with the forecast temperatures bar below due to the poor temperature forecast for our local area by the Weather Service as some of you have pointed out lately. So here are my temperature forecasts for the area. Crestline and Arrowhead will see highs today in the 82-86* range with overnight lows in the 60-66* area. Wednesday; 75-80*/ 62-66*, Thursday; 75-80*/64-68*. Running Springs and Big Bear will be in the 78-82*/58-64* today. The high pressure that has been persistent over SoCal will slowly slide south over the next 24 hours as a weak trough for SoCal moves through the area. This will continue to bring a cooling trend and increase the Marine layer along the coast and possibly into the Inlands valleys Thursday. Winds today will pick up from the SW from 5-10 mph with gusts from 10-20mph in the wind prone areas. Humidity levels will remain low, so afternoon Fire Danger levels will be elevated later today. Humidity levels will rebound tonight as the SW flow picks up lowering the Fire Danger levels for the next few days. Clear skies prevail across all of California this morning as can be seen from the GOES16R sat pic. Dora, a CAT 1 Hurricane this morning, will peter out becoming a Tropical Disturbance this afternoon as it dies out and heads out to sea, for now. We may see some of Dora’s residual moisture around the 6th of July along the West Coast of SoCal in the form of Thunderstorms and or just clouds, we’ll have to wait and see on that. So all in all, the Hot spell is over for now and we will return to more normal temperatures for the next five days. Have a good day. RC

 

Monday, JUNE 26, 2017

 

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Good Morning.
Today’s Weather outlook for the Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and other San Bernardino mountain communities:
As we continue to sit under a ridge of high pressure and melt, the promise of a cooling trend ahead is looking good. Today we will again be very warm across the area with highs today in the 90-95* range locally. Big Bear should be a little cooler with highs in the upper 80s as well as Running Springs. Clear skies and low humidity levels along with winds from the SW becoming gusty later today. An area of low pressure will move through the Northern part of the State and will bring some relief to our current heat wave. Each day this week, we will be a little cooler than the previous day. Overnight lows will cool as well with lows at night bottoming out in the upper 50s to low 60s by Wednesday. Not a lot of change for the next few days other than temps will be a little cooler. We may pick up some gusty SW winds tonight and Tuesday from a passing front to are north. That’s about all. 500mb heights show a weakening of the high pressure but nothing substantial. Surface pressure from Tonopah to San Diego is running slightly onshore this morning. Hopefully, this will be the beginning of a change in our weather. RC

Sunday, JUNE 25, 2017

 

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Good Morning.
Today’s Weather outlook for the Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and other San Bernardino mountain communities:
Running a little late today, sleep is a wonderful thing. Well, here is the news we all have been waiting for, if my calculations are right, today will be another hot day running around 90-95* locally, then, we begin a cooling trend. Monday, we should see highs for the day from 85-90*, Tuesday from 83-87* and Wednesday, 75-83* for the Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and surrounding areas. Upper level High pressure now centered over Arizona, New Mexico and Northern Mexico at 596dm will slowly weaken as an area of low pressure (580dm) to our North slowly moves onshore from over the Pacific and pushes out the High pressure that has been giving us such hot temperatures. The Towering Cumulus clouds that developed late yesterday were quite impressive and did bring a shower to the Big Bear area of Shay Meadows, with a total of .04″. I didn’t see any reports of Lightning but can’t rule it out. All of the Monsoonal moisture from yesterday, has now moved to our East, and the possibility of Thunderstorms are gone as well. Clear skies, low humidity levels, and light winds will again be the forecast for today. To our south, Tropical storm Dora, is forecast to become the first Hurricane of the year Monday morning by 8am. Dora will parallel the Mexico coastline then head out to sea. At first, Dora will not have an affect on our weather here. But around the 7th of July, the westerly’s will pick up the residual moisture from Dora and send it to SoCal as it looks at this time. This signals the beginning of the Monsoon season for our area and the possibility of Thunderstorms will be likely, as the remnants of Dora arrive early in July. I believe this is the longest heat spell with the hottest daytime high temperatures I have seen in my 36 years on the mountain. I can’t remember so many days with temperatures at or near the 100* mark across the local area. Hopefully, this will be it for the summer. That’s it for now, please don’t forget about your pets as they need shade and water too. RC

Saturday, JUNE 24, 2017

 

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Good Morning.
Today’s Weather outlook for the Crestline, Lake Arrowhead and other San Bernardino mountain communities:
This morning we will start the day with a high based cloud cover extending from over the Eastern Pacific to the Desert South West. Overnight, a few sprinkles were reported over the ocean near the offshore islands as well as a few lightning strikes in the same area. I looked at the lightning strike map this morning and the most recent strike was East of of Point Conception between 6am and 8am. As the heat builds later today, we will have a chance for Thunderstorms to develop over the SoCal area this afternoon, mostly along the mountainous areas. Moisture from the south will be pushed through the area from a low pressure to our East, and a high pressure area centered over Arizona and Mexico. We will be in the middle of these two circulations which will draw up moisture from the south into SoCal. Hopefully, the cloud cover will assist to keep the daytime high temperatures down. The forecasted high temps for our area is from 86-93* today. Yesterday we were supposed to be cooler, but we ended up several degrees warmer than the day’s forecast called for. A high temperature of 101* was reported in Deer Lodge Park yesterday afternoon, I had 97* for my daytime high temp here at the south side of Lake Gregory. Humidity levels have been running as low as 5-7% in the late afternoon hours as well, for some local areas, so please be careful with your outdoor BBQ’s etc. At this point, there doesn’t appear to be any big changes in our local weather. We may cool a few degrees over the five day period to around what would be normal for this time of year. We will continue to have HIGH FIRE DANGER for the local area due to high temperatures and afternoon low humidity levels. Fortunately, we will only have light winds so we shouldn’t see that level get to a critical level. If you are planning any outdoor activity this weekend, be sure to back plenty of liquids, and don’t forget about your pets, they need shade and water, especially in this current heat wave. RC

Friday, JUNE 23, 2017

 

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Good Morning.
Today, NESTAL Court, and Nesthorn, drive will be closed for paving.
Today we will be a little cooler that yesterday with highs expected to be in the mid to upper 80s in the mountains. There is some upper level moisture that will bring a chance for some cumulus clouds to develop along the ridges later today and early Saturday morning. There won’t be much chance for Thunderstorm development locally as the atmospheric dynamics are pretty weak across SoCal (CAPE-300-400J). Today will likely be the coolest day of the next five as the area of high pressure will again strengthen over the weekend bringing up the temperatures by a few degrees. The Desert areas will be close to the 120* mark and the Valleys will be at 100*, locally, we will be back to the upper 80s to low 90s. Mostly clear skies through the period with light and variable winds. Humidity levels continue to be quite low in the afternoon hours when the temperatures reach their peak. The Fire Danger levels will remain very high for the local area. Off of southern Baja, a Tropical Storm is brewing. The 5day forecast shows it taking a path parallel to the Baja coast toward the north. We may see some affects from this system late in the week, next week. Other than that, very warm temperatures will continue to be the extended outlook. RC

Thursday, JUNE 22, 2017

 

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Good Morning.
Today, CRESTA LANE, and DRIVE as will Neve court will be closed for paving.
Temperatures today are supposed to be a few degrees cooler than what we have had over the last week. I’m hopeful. Clear skies with light and variable winds along with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will be the forecast for the mountain. In the Valley, high temperatures will continue to bump the 100* mark again today. We may get a little relief beginning tomorrow as some mid level tropical moisture along with a few mid level clouds may move through the SoCal Eastern region. Temperatures over the weekend are expected to be in the upper 80s for the local area. So, if you are going to one of our local Lakes, hiking, etc., be sure to remember your sunscreen and bring plenty of liquids. The area of high pressure that has been sitting over the west will weaken slightly over the next couple of days giving us a slight reprieve from the hot temperatures. Summer is now here with today being the first full day of Summer, and the heat is here to prove it. Humidity levels are still dipping to the single digits in the afternoon hours which will keep the Fire Danger levels at very high through the weekend. In the early morning hours, we have pretty good recovery as humidity levels are coming back up through the morning before dipping back to the low levels later in the day. As always as we head into Summer, be very careful with any outdoor fire and keep a fire extinguisher close. RC

Wednesday, JUNE 21, 2017

 

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Good Morning.
Today, parts of Altdorf drive will be closed for paving.
Not much change in our weather for today. HOT weather will continue today with a slight cooling trend to begin tomorrow. Highs will again be in the upper 80s to mid 90s around the mountain today. Tomorrow, we will see temperatures a couple degrees cooler for most areas and again for Friday. We will still be very warm through the next five days with little relief in sight. There will be a chance for some Tropical moisture to move into the local area over the weekend, but at this time that it looks like that will only bring in higher humidity levels. The area of high pressure that is responsible for the heat wave will slowly weaken and move West over the next five days. This should help to strengthen the onshore flow and help to push the marine layer further Inland in the coming days. Although temperatures will cool in the days ahead, we will still remain at or above normal for daytime highs through the period. Humidity levels during the latter part of the day have been running in the teens and in some areas single digits. This has been a problem for the fire in the Big Bear area as seen yesterday when the Fire activity greatly increased late yesterday afternoon. Also, quick work by the Fire service and some hikers, kept a fire in the Lake Silverwood area from becoming another major fire yesterday afternoon. Thank You. Although the winds have not been much of a factor, the low humidity levels during the afternoon hours are making for very high Fire Danger levels. Be careful if you are in the forest and be aware of your surroundings. Have an escape route in mind so if a fire breaks out, you don’t get trapped. Again today, we will have light and variable winds with low afternoon humidity levels an high daytime temperatures. Be sure to have plenty of liquids to keep yourself hydrated and don’t forget about your pets, they get hot too. RC